Andrew Vaughn has been a replacement-level player ever since he debuted for the Chicago White Sox in 2021.
This is one reason this season should be his final shot at being the star player the franchise envisioned when he was drafted No. 3 overall in the 2019 MLB Draft.
The Detroit Tigers selected Riley Greene two picks later, and he has already made an AL All-Star team. More importantly, he has developed into a 4 fWAR player.
You have to wonder if the Sox would be in a better state had they taken Greene instead of Vaughn.
Vaughn was the 2018 Golden Spikes winner after hitting .414 for California that season. The thought was Vaughn was one of the most MLB-ready prospects in the 2019 draft.
The Sox already collected an impressive group of young hitters in Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert Jr., and Tim Anderson.
The thinking was Vaughn could join that core right when the team was ready to compete.
It sort of worked out that way as Vaughn's rookie season was the same year the Sox won the AL Central in 2021. Getting rushed and being asked to play the outfield and DH with Jose Abreu still on the roster may have stunted his growth as a player.
The belief was Vaughn's game would go to the next level once he was able to move back to his first base, his natural position. It is one reason the Sox let the legend Abreu walk in free agency after the 2022 season.
So far, Vaughn has produced a -0.5 fWAR in four seasons with a .252/.309/.415 slash line and 73 career home runs. He got off to a terrible start last season, and he is off to another one this year.
Greene did not debut until 2022, as the Tigers gave him time to develop since he was drafted out of high school. In three seasons, he has a career 7.6 fWAR, a .268/.339/.439 slash line and 42 home runs.
He has also put up that production in 1445 at-bats. Vaughn has 2277 career ABs and has not come close to making an All-Star team.
Greene also provides much better value in the field with 14 defensive runs saved last season. One reason Vaughn's WAR has always been at replacement-level is because of his terrible defense.
In terms of hitting value, Greene has a career 121 wRC+, while Vaughn is at 101, which is a tick above the league average.
Plus, drafting Greene followed a much better process in that he is a natural outfielder who had upside as a prep player. He had the higher ceiling, and when a team is picking in the top 10, it is always better to go with that prospect rather than a high-floor player such as Vaughn.
Plus, first base is no longer a premium position like it was in, say, 1989 when the Sox took Frank Thomas. Thomas was also a genetic freak in that he was a tight end who was able to hit like Ted Williams.
Vaughn is generously listed at five feet, 10 inches, and it looks like his best trait is that he is capable of being an average player in the big leagues.
In 2019, teams realized you could get a first baseman basically anywhere and get the floor of replacement-level play that Vaughn is producing. That is why taking Vaughn so high was just a bad process, as it wasted a pick meant to get a franchise player.
It looks even worse that the Sox went with Vaughn since the team has declined so rapidly ever since he was given such a major role in the lineup. On the flip side, the Tigers have ascended the standings as Greene continues to get better.