Rankings: Is Jose Abreu the top 1st baseman in the division?

Jul 29, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu (79) at bat against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The American League Central is primed to be one of, if not the best, divisions in baseball this season. A big reason for that is four of the five teams in the division have a commitment or renewed commitment to winning in ’15.

In that commitment to winning, the players who man first base in the division are some of the best in baseball. The Chicago White Sox have Jose Abreu, and Miguel Cabrera mans the position for the Detroit Tigers.

There is also Carlos Santana for the Cleveland Indians, Eric Hosmer of the Kansas City Royals and Joe Mauer of the Minnesota Twins.

Those are all very quality first basemen, but the question still remains: Who is the best? How should we look at these players when ranking them?

The five AL Central starting first basemen will be ranked by their offensive numbers, defensive numbers and on what they bring to their respective teams on a yearly basis.

Some of these players are or will be perennial All-Stars, while others are still making their name in the big leagues. There are players of all calibers and backgrounds in this list of five, so this will not be an easy task.

Most likely, opinions will vary, but that’s OK, because if we all thought the same, there would be no room for debate.

With that said, let’s take a look at how these players are ranked.

Next: Ranking: No. 5

5. Joe Mauer (Minnesota Twins)

Sep 17, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins first baseman Joe Mauer (7) hits a RBI single in the eighth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Target Field. The Twins won 8-4. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Debut: April 5, 2004
Age: 31 years old
Team Record (2014): 70-92

A look at last season:

Mauer batted .277 last season and is without a doubt the captain and leader of the Minnesota ball club. In ’14, Mauer played in 120 games, leading to 455 at-bats, which included 126 hits, four home runs and 55 RBIs.

Though Mauer wasn’t an All-Star last season, he did a have a productive season nonetheless, though he’s had better seasons in the past. Since winning the AL MVP award in ’09, he’s never finished higher than ninth in the voting but has been an All-Star three more times since that season.

I’m not saying Mauer isn’t still a good baseball player, because he is, but he’s just not the player he used to be.

During the ’09 MVP campaign, Mauer batted .365 with a .444 on-base percentage and a .587 slugging percentage, all MLB bests that season.

But back to more current times … in 100 games last season at first base, Mauer finished with a .997 fielding percentage, with three errors in 915 chances.

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2015 Baseball Prospectus Projections:

Entering this season at 32 years old, Mauer is projected to have better numbers than he did last season, in what will be his 11th MLB season.

Baseball Prospectus has Mauer projected with a .298 batting average with 27 doubles, two triples, six home runs and 50 RBIs.

The publication also projects Mauer with 56 walks while having a .380 on-base percentage and .409 slugging percentage, all better numbers than last season.

They Said It:

In an article on the official Minnesota Twins web site:

“I’ve had a great offseason. I haven’t had an offseason like this in a long time. I was able to get right into workouts, and obviously at the end of the year take care of some little nicks here and there. My body feels good headed into this year. I’m excited about what’s to come.”

Next: Ranking: No. 4

4. Carlos Santana (Cleveland Indians)

Sep 14, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Cleveland Indians first baseman Carlos Santana (41) at bat against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Debut: June 11, 2010
Age: 28 years old
Team Record (2014): 73-89

A look at last season:

One of the best things about Indians first baseman Carlos Santana is he’s durable, playing in 152 games this past season and in at least 143 games the past four seasons. Santana is averaging 151 games per season.

Last year, his batting average dropped 37 points, but his home run total rose by seven, hitting 27 last season compared to the 20 he hit in ’13. So, maybe that was a fair trade for the Indians?

Santana was part of an Indians team which finished third in the AL Central with an 85-77 record, five games behind the eventual champion Detroit Tigers.

In a continued look at Santana’s ’14 campaign, he led the majors with 113 walks but did strike out 124 times. His on-base percentage dropped 12 points to .365, and his slugging percentage fell to .427 (it was .455 in ’13).

Though Santana was 20 hits worse in ’14 (125) than he was in ’13 (145), he still had serviceable numbers, including 25 doubles.

2015 Baseball Prospectus Projections:
It is no surprise Santana is projected to have an improved season in ’15, with the publication having Santana batting .249 with a .366 OBP and .432 SLG.

In his projected 660 at-bats for the upcoming season, BP has Santana finishing with 30 doubles, one triple and 21 home runs with 79 RBIs and 94 walks. He’s also being projected for 116 strikeouts.

Those aren’t bad numbers compared to last season, but with Santana, what will be interesting to see is if he can get back to where he was in ’13, rather than where he was last year.

They Said It:

This quote is from an article on MLB.com:

“Carlos is too good a hitter. We could’ve put him in center field and at some point he was going to get hot. He’s a good hitter. I believe that. Now, I do think him being at one position, I do think it helped. But, when he started out, he was so happy to be playing third, so I just think to be fair to everybody, I really don’t think that’s why he didn’t hit at the beginning.” – Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona on Santana in a recent MLB.com article.

Next: Ranking: No. 3

3. Eric Hosmer (Kansas City Royals)

Oct 28, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer hits a RBI double against the San Francisco Giants in the second inning during game six of the 2014 World Series at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Debut: May 6, 2011
Age: 25 years old
Team Record (2014): 89-73 (AL Champions)

A look at last season:

In four major league seasons with the Kansas City Royals, Hosmer has a career .275 batting average with 59 home runs and 275 RBIs.

Looking back at last season, he played in 131 games (down from the 159 played in ’13), where his numbers dropped from the previous season.

In ’14, Hosmer batted .270 with a .318 on-base percentage and .398 slugging percentage. With that, he had nine home runs and 58 RBIs. Hosmer did draw 35 walks (51 in ’13), so it wasn’t the most productive season he’s had in his four MLB seasons.

What will this year hold for the first baseman?

Even USA Today has an article from January, talking about his season, though it was a fantasy baseball article. In the article by Tim Heaney, it said:

“But smart projectors would say he’d more strongly convert fly balls to homers than the absurdly low 6.8 percent he posted last year (career 11.2). He hit 19 homers in his rookie season, and to paraphrase the widespread fantasy baseball axiom: Once a player displays a skill, he owns it. And it could resurface at any time.”

Hosmer just signed a two-year contract extenuation with the Royals for $13.9 million, which is a good deal for both sides, considering the Royals aren’t big spenders and Hosmer is just 25 years old. In an MLB.com article, Hosmer said of the deal: “It was a no-brainer to take (the deal).”

2015 Baseball Prospectus Projections:

For the 2015 season, BP is projecting Hosmer to have a .279 average with a .331 on-base percentage and .417 slugging percentage.

Those are all an increase from last season, as the publication also has the Royals’ first baseman with 59 runs, 27 doubles, two triples, 12 home runs and 62 RBIs. He’s also being projected to have 40 walks and 86 strikeouts.

That seems to be a very good season for Hosmer, though it still wouldn’t match the .302 season he had in ’13.

They Said It:

In this article from MLB.com it says:

“[Hosmer] is a very integral part of our team,” Moore said. “He can impact the team in a lot of ways, whether it’s at the plate or at first base defensively or running the bases. He can hit with power, he can hit the other way — there’s just a lot of talent in his game.” – Dayton Moore, KC Royals General Manager

Next: Ranking: No. 2

2. Jose Abreu (Chicago White Sox)

May 9, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu (79) hits a single RBI against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the fourth inning at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Debut: March 31, 2014
Age: 28 years old
Team Record (2014): 73-89

A look at last season:

Jose Abreu had one of the best rookie seasons on record in ’14, with the first baseman setting rookie records, plus he was named AL Player of the Month on more than one occasion in ’14.

Abreu led the majors in slugging percentage at .581 and OPS+ at 169 on his way to ROY honors, an All-Star selection, a Silver Slugger award and a fourth-place finish in the AL MVP voting.

Not bad at all for the Cuban export, and this was just his first season in the big leagues. You could say the White Sox hit the lottery with this signing last offseason.

Other numbers for the “face of the White Sox” included: 36 home runs, 35 doubles, two triples and 80 runs in 556 at-bats. Abreu also batted an amazing .317, with an on-base percentage of .383, not to mention his .964 OPS.

Abreu did strike out 131 times, but with those above numbers, that is a tradeoff that can be accepted.

2015 Baseball Prospectus Projections:

This upcoming season, Abreu is being projected by BP to have a .295 batting average with a .360 OBP and .528 SLG, which I (and many others) believe are low projections. Add that with projections of 63 runs, 23 doubles, two triples, 23 home runs and 74 RBIs, and it makes these projections just downright incorrect and not even close.

That’s OK, though … there is a system to the madness, and Abreu will most likely outplay these numbers by a good margin in 2015.

What are your thoughts on the Abreu projections?

They Said It:

The following quote is from ESPN Chicago:

“I have to be a complete player, and I can’t work less and still be that. I have the same mentality, it doesn’t matter who will be on the team. I just prepare myself to be successful and 100-percent on the field.” – Abreu in an ESPN Chicago interview in January.

Next: Ranking: No. 1