Will the Chicago White Sox use a four-man rotation in 2015?
Aug 3, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Chicago White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper (99) walks off the field against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
With Chris Sale‘s spring training injury, there are multiple options for the Chicago White Sox to go in regards to their starting rotation.
One of those options includes using a four man rotation. I have heard some minor rumblings (so minor they would not register on the Richter scale) but it was enough to get me thinking could the club start 2015 with a four man starting rotation?
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Well, no team has seriously tried it since the 2012 Colorado Rockies, and I would not count on it happening on the Southside of Chicago in 2015. But with a potential rotation of Jeff Samardzija, Jose Quintana, John Danks, and Hector Noesi, for only three weeks, it would not be completely absurd.
There are a few pros and cons to either side of the argument, so without further ado, here are those talking points.
Next: Pros to a 4-man rotation
PROS
Feb 28, 2015; Glendale, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox pitcher Hector Noesi poses for a portrait during photo day at Camelback Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
• The number of off days in April
The White Sox schedule offers three off days in the first two weeks of the season, which would help alleviate some of the pitching load for a four-man rotation, because the pitcher would not always be on short rest.
Some simple math also shows that if Sale returns on April 22 following a potential 15-day disabled list stint, Samardzija (who would likely take over the ace role with the thin lefty sidelined) would make four starts before Sale’s debut, while Quintana, Danks, and Noesi would each throw three times.
With a normal five-man rotation, Samardzija and Quintana would have three, while Danks, Noesi, and the fifth hole would have two starts each. Not a whole lot extra (and nothing changes for Quintana, who will probably have two no-decisions by then regardless.)
• No pressure to use Carlos Rodon.
The No. 3 overall pick in last year’s MLB First-Year Player Draft has impressed at camp and is gunning to fill that gap at the back end of the rotation that opened up following Sale’s injury. With a four-man rotation, there would be no rush to use Rodon if he is not ready and they would not be pressured to do so without using a traditional five man rotation.
There is also the service time rule that would allow the White Sox to control Rodon for an extra year if his debut is delayed.
That game is already being played on the north side of town with Kris Bryant so it is not like it would be the most un-Chicago thing to ever happen. While I believe if a player can help win ballgames, he should be at the major league level, the business aspect to the game is huge, and I cannot say I blame the White Sox if they employ this strategy with Rodon.
Next: Cons to a four-man rotation
CONS
Sep 15, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Chicago White Sox relief pitcher Jake Petricka (52) delivers a pitch against the Kansas City Royals in the ninth inning at Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City won the game 4-3. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports
• Added stress on pitchers.
While highlighting the April schedule as a plus for the starters despite the added starts, it negatively affects the relief corps. If those starting pitchers throw more in April and falter in August and September as a result, that adds innings onto the bullpen guys.
With starters worn down come the stretch run due to a high workload in the early months of the season, the reliance on the bullpen becomes paramount, and that is no way to build sustainable success unless you are the Kansas City Royals of 2014. (And while Jake Petricka, Zach Duke, and David Robertson are fine pieces, they are not the three-headed monster coming out of Kauffman Stadium’s bullpen last year).
For a team that is eyeing its first postseason trip since 2008, it would be wiser to conserve their arms.
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There is no shortage of options. From would-be rookies like Rodon or Chris Beck to returning big-leaguers Brad Penny or Scott Carroll, the Chicago White Sox have other options.
Beck, the club’s 12th rated prospect is the most big-league ready arm outside Rodon in a starting capacity. Penny, while past the peak of his career, has shown he can get out big league bats, and logged over 180 innings as recently as 2011 with the Detroit Tigers. (Yes that was four years ago, but he would be fine for two starts in 2015.) Carroll was a serviceable fifth starter for the club at times during the 2014 season and would likely be more of the same this year.
While I do not think the White Sox could go wrong either way, I think the smarter thing to do in the long run would be to use the traditional five man set.
Not only would it give more time for Sale to get his work in following the injury, but it allows the pitching staff to stay rested, both in the rotation and the bullpen. I would chose from the trio of Penny, Beck, or Carroll and allow Rodon to mature in the minor leagues still. (After all, the North Carolina State product has only thrown 24.1 innings of professional ball.) There is no reason to stretch the pitching staff so early for a team that hopes to conclude their season in late October.
What do you think, would a four man rotation in April work? Is it worth the risk? Who, if anyone, should start the season as the fifth starter? Comment below!