Chicago White Sox: Who are the other extension candidates?
Sep 22, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Chicago White Sox right fielder Avisail Garcia (26) at bat against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Chicago White Sox GM Rick Hahn has proven himself to be quite the savant when it comes to free agency and the trade market, but his most skilled area may in fact be somewhere else: Crafting extensions.
Adam Eaton‘s extension is merely the most recent example. The center fielder’s five-year, $23.5 million deal officially solidifies Eaton as a core member of what is shaping up to be the best nucleus the White Sox have had in years.
The contract also contains two team options, which could extend Eaton’s stay on the South Side to a total of 7 years. The contract is a steal, especially if Eaton can generate more of those.
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Pair Eaton’s extension to the Chris Sale and Jose Quintana contracts, and Hahn has constructed a trifecta of cost-effective deals that position the White Sox well for the foreseeable future.
Chris Sale: 5-year/2 team options ($32.5 million/$57.5 million)
Jose Quintana: 5-year/2 team options ($26.5 million/$47.5 million)
Adam Eaton: 5-year/2 team options ($23.5 million/$43.5 million)
See a pattern? All of these extensions were signed when the above were pre-arb players. Hahn has done an excellent job buying out the arbitration years, a couple years of free agency, and then adding the option to continue the relationship even longer.
Financially, the deals have escalating annual salaries, assuming that the player follows the traditional prime arc. To me, the greatest part about these contracts is that Hahn was able to add two years of control via team options.
Rick Hahn has essentially locked up three all-star caliber players for 18 years of team control at the price of $148.5 million
This puts the White Sox fully in the driver’s seat, and with inflation and naturally rising MLB salaries, even the money owed during the option years will be considerably less than the average qualifying offer. Plus, this gives the team cost-certainty, and makes it easier for Hahn to envision financial commitments to core pieces, without having to project arbitration salaries.
If all players remain with the organization from this point forward through the option years, then Hahn has essentially locked up three all-star caliber players for 18 years of team control at the price of $148.5 million. For perspective, the Chicago Cubs inked Jon Lester to a six-year, $155 million deal this offseason. Feel free to use that as ammunition during the Crosstown Classic.
The difference is that Lester’s deal was a product of free agency, while the others were signed pre-arbitration. The fact is, you can get players a lot cheaper through the latter method. We saw it with the Miami Marlin’s recent extension of Christian Yelich, and the trend is likely to continue.
There’s an art to these pre-arb extensions, because the team gets a discount at the cost of the player netting security.
Eaton is injury prone, and while I think he’ll have a much healthier ’15, the fact remains that his style of plays lends itself to DL stints, and this was probably Hahn’s main argument.
“Hey, you’ll be worth way more than this if you stay on the field, but if you run into a wall again, you’ll still walk away with $23.5 million guaranteed. And if you sign at a discount, we can afford to put more talent around you.”
Eaton, himself, touched on the latter portion as outlined in ESPN Chicago’s Doug Padilla’s article:
“‘I’m going to be making quite a bit of money, but with that being said, this is the cheaper route for the team,’ Eaton said. ‘I think I’m going to play more than that contract is worth, but again, we want to win here and there’s money to go elsewhere. The next three, four, five years, if I can be a savings to bring some guys in, that’s key for us.'”
Not all players are like this, and it’s commendable for Eaton to put the gratification of winning above the utility of a heftier contract
Yet, it’s part of the culture Hahn is building, and even Chris Sale accepts the notion that if a certain extension candidate is signed, his salary will balloon in comparison to his own. That extension candidate is the first one we will discuss: Jeff Samardzija.
Next: White Sox: Jeff Samardzija
JEFF SAMARDZIJA – SP
Mar 17, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox pitcher Jeff Samardzija against the Seattle Mariners at Camelback Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
I won’t go too in-depth here because this topic has been belabored since the second Samardzija was shipped east to the Windy City. Plus, this wouldn’t be a pre-arb deal like the others I touched on above.
Samardzija and his agent have been adamant about testing the waters of free agency and why not? The contracts received by Lester and Max Scherzer this offseason have to look appealing to a right-hander who is only just reaching his ceiling.
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Hahn had said that part of the allure of acquiring Samardzija was netting exclusive negotiating rights throughout the ’15 season. However, according to a March 5th report by MLB Trade Rumors no such conversations have taken place.
I don’t expect extension talks to linger into the season because that can be a distraction, but still Hahn’s view is right in that Samardzija’s agent won’t have to vet the White Sox organization this fall because Samardzija will get an inside view of it himself during the ’15 season.
Yes, Samardzija was a White Sox fan growing up and undoubtedly feels at home, but he declined a five-year, $85 million extension offer from the Cubs last spring. That was before Samardzja had went out and had a career year.
Samardzija could set himself up for an enormous payday with a strong ’15 season
You have to give him credit for betting on himself, and that’s exactly what he’ll do this season. If Samardzija can post numbers similar to his ’14 season, and be a 17-20 game winner for the White Sox, he will set himself up for an enormous pay-day.
Ultimately, I think the White Sox will have to go at least six-years with an average annual value of $20-22 million. The beauty of the aforementioned extensions is that they give the White Sox the financial wherewithal and flexibility to make such a move.
Regardless, Samardzija is likely to be inked via free agency in the fall rather than an in season extension.
Next: White Sox: Avisail Garcia
AVISAIL GARCIA – RF
Mar 17, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia against the Seattle Mariners at Camelback Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
This is a very interesting discussion because there is inherent risk for both parties. For the White Sox, there is the risk that Garcia never develops into that five-tool superstar type player they believe him to be, and the risk for Garcia is potentially inking a deal that pays him far less than he’d deserve if he actually reaches that ceiling.
Once again, there is the whole duality of security versus accurate compensation. Garcia has shown flashes of his potential, notably when he hit .304 in 42 games with the White Sox in ’13, and when he showed considerable pop during last season.
Garcia has used this offseason to slim down in an attempt to regain some of his speed, which should make him more of a threat on the base paths and an asset defensively in right.
Had Garcia had a healthy ’14 season, I think he would have been locked up this offseason. Garcia is the key return of Hahn’s first impact move, and a player the organization wants to build the team around.
Garcia is just 23, meaning that as Jose Abreu begins to slide out of his prime, Garcia should be entering his. The White Sox likely want to capitalize on Garcia’s age 27-29 seasons.
The Venezuelan native isn’t arbitration eligible until ’16 at the earliest, and he won’t be a free agent until after the ’19 season. As it stands, the White Sox have control of Garcia through his age 28 season, but he could obviously still be productive into his early 30s.
If Garcia becomes a .280 hitter, with 25-plus home runs, plus defense and 10-15 SB, he’ll become extremely valuable. The type of valuable you don’t want to be in the hands of arbitration. Thus, Hahn and company likely want to engineer more concrete salaries for Garcia during his arb years.
Just look at Kyle Seager‘s recent extension with the Seattle Mariners. In December, Seattle inked Seager to a seven-year, $100 million contract. Here’s Seager’s stat line from his ’14 season:
.268/.334/.454 with 25 home runs, 27 doubles, 96 RBIs, and 7 SB
All the while, he played Gold Glove defense at third base. Granted, Seager had two full seasons before ’14 in which he posted over 20 home runs and a respectable average, but his ’14 production is the ceiling the White Sox envision for Garcia, if not even one a little higher.
Thus, it would pay great dividends for the White Sox to lock up Garcia at a cheaper rate before he reaches such a level. That’s why I believe Hahn is probably closely eying such a deal. The concern is that Garcia’s plate discipline issues and overall unproven stock adds a lot of risk in giving him a significant contract.
Christian Yelich’s recent contract is a good benchmark for Garcia
I think right-fielder Christian Yelich’s latest contract with the Marlins is a great benchmark to use when looking at Garcia.
He signed for seven-years, $49.57 million, with an eighth year in the form of a team option. Drew Silva made an interesting point about Yelich’s extension on Hardballtalk.com saying that it:
“looks like a very-team friendly contract for a 23-year-old rising star like Yelich, but it’s the second-largest sum of guaranteed money ever handed out a player with less than two years of major league service time. Andrelton Simmons‘ seven-year, $58 million pact with the Braves is still the richest.”
Even after ’15, Garcia will still only have one full season under his belt (assuming a clean bill of health this season) and as Silva notes, it is unorthodox for players to net these types of contracts without much of a track record. Then again, the White Sox did give $68 million to Abreu over six-years, despite the fact that the slugger had never seen a major league pitch.
Yelich posted a .284/.362/.402 line with nine home runs, 30 doubles and 21 steals, along with Gold Glove defense in right last season for the Fish.
Honestly, Yelich’s ’14 numbers seem like a reasonable projection for Garcia in ’15 if you take away some steals, and compensate by adding more in the form of Garcia’s power numbers.
I doubt Hahn will extend Garcia before he finishes the ’15 season, but if Garcia posts numbers similar or beyond Yelich’s ’14 production, he could be looking at a five-year contract that would take him through his first year of free agency and age 29 season at the price of $45-55 million, with two teams options buying out his second and third years of free agency at somewhat higher rates.
In my opinion this would be a solid contract for both sides, and I have little doubt that Hahn can work out such a deal with Garcia’s Octagon agency before the start of the ’16 season.
Next: White Sox: Looking Ahead
LOOKING AHEAD
Mar 10, 2015; Surprise, AZ, USA; Chicago White Sox infielder Micah Johnson (7) during a spring training baseball game against the Kansas City Royals at Surprise Stadium. The White Sox beat the Royals 6-2. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports
Micah Johnson
After Garcia, there aren’t many other pre-arb names out there for the White Sox to look to lock up. I think one player to keep in mind is Johnson. The second baseman has been dominating the Cactus League this spring, and looks on track to break camp as the starting second baseman.
A solid ’15 and ’16, will put Johnson in a position to be extended during the ’16 offseason. It will be interesting to see how the White Sox value speed as that could be Johnson’s greatest asset to the club. Seeing that they just locked up their lead-off man for at least the next five years, Johnson would be a great anchor at the bottom of the line-up, setting the table along with Eaton for the big time sluggers in the middle.
I can already see it. Carlos Rodon joins the rotation at some point in the ’15 season and fuels a playoff fun. After being electric in the playoffs, the No. 3 overall draft pick builds on his success and finishes in the Top 5 in AL Cy Young Award voting in his next two seasons.
Rodon will be the White Sox’s most interesting extension candidate over the next few years
Suddenly, it’s time for Hahn to think about extending the young ace. Granted, Chris Sale is still dominate and maybe the White Sox have Samardzija, but Hahn knows they’ll need to keep Rodon beyond his free agency years to continue the push for sustained success.
That’s when Rodon’s agent Scott Boras theoretically drops this line:
“There’s already been a $300 million hitter (Giancarlo Stanton). With Rodon we’ll be talking about the first $300 million pitcher.”
At this point Rodon will still be a few years away from free agency, but Boras will have his eyes set on an unprecedented payday meaning extension talks with Rodon will be much more tumultuous than the more recent ones we’ve seen the White Sox undergo with other core players.
We’re already seeing this saga starting to play out with another Boras client in SP Jose Fernandez. Fernandez’s camp doesn’t appear ready to accept the six-year, $40 million deal reportedly proposed by the Marlins, and that is even with health questions surrounding Fernandez’s elbow.
Thus, the risk and appeal of job security couldn’t be higher for Fernandez, yet there’s still hesitation.
I can envision a similar scenario taking place with Rodon, and that’s why over the next few years, I think he will be the White Sox’s most interesting extension candidate.