2016 Chicago White Sox Starting Rotation Preview

The 2015 season was disappointing for the Chicago White Sox, but no one can reasonably blame their starting rotation for that being the case. While Jeff Samardzija did not pitch up to the level he was brought in to perform at, the group as a whole was very good. Even though “Shark” was not able to provide the right handed punch between the cluster of southpaws in the White Sox rotation including Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, he managed to sign a lucrative deal with the San Francisco Giants this offseason, ensuring that his one year run with his boyhood team was largely a disaster. Holdovers from last season’s rotation do include Sale and Quintana as well as Carlos Rodon, and John Danks. Erik Johnson also pitched well in limited starts down the stretch. This week the White Sox looked to bolster that staff by signing free agent pitcher Mat Latos to a one year, $3 million dollar deal (which could be an absolute steal if he channels his pre-injury form). In addition to Latos, former top prospect with the Detroit Tigers, and Miami Marlins Jacob Turner was brought in for rotational depth as well as some additional competition in Spring Training. Barring any injuries in Arizona this year (here’s looking at you Sale, no jumping off your truck this Februrary) here is how the Opening Day rotation will look.

Ace: Chris Sale

Does this even need to be said? Sale is the second-best left-handed pitcher in the game (credit must be given to Clayton Kershaw who I have determined may not even be human) and arguably the best pitcher in the junior circuit, but has yet to prove it by staying healthy an entire season. After setting the single season franchise record for strikeouts in a season last year with 274, Sale can only improve with a full spring training, and the month of April.

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If he stays healthy 300 punch-outs is a realistic expectation, he is just that good. If his defense steps it up behind him, his earned run average will plummet, and his win total will likely increase. With the addition of

, sliding

to shortstop, and putting

at second base, the defense in the infield has already improved significantly on the southside. The advanced metrics agree that Sale should have been even better in 2015, with

reporting

the lanky lefty had an ERA of 3.41, but a FIP of 2.73 and an even better xFIP which was calculated at 2.60, eight-tenths of a run better than his actual earned run average which is absurd. The front office took steps to improve the club, and the defense behind the bump looks to be a part of that. The only thing holding Sale back in 2016 other than injury, is how he will mesh with new catchers

and

after

was non-tendered, and signed with the Atlanta Braves. A better defense coupled with a potentially improved offense that should put runs on the board, should put Sale in the thick of the American League

Award race at season’s end. Undoubtedly the leader of this staff, the former 13th pick in the draft should easily make another All-Star team when this year’s Midsummer’s Classic is played in our nation’s capital on July 12th.

2016 predictions: 17-8, 2.68 ERA, 286 K’s – American League Cy Young Award Winner.

Number Two: Jose Quintana

If it weren’t for a ridiculous streak of no decisions, Quintana would likely be mentioned as one of the game’s upper echelon pitchers. The Colombian southpaw ranked in the top ten pitchers in the AL last year in multiple categories, including WAR.  The other Q in Chicago (the one without the mustache) has flown under the radar nationally for two main reasons: his lack of win totals, and the prominence of his rotation mate Chris Sale. Should he actually get a bit of luck and some run support (Quintana ranked 73rd out of 78 qualified pitchers in the majors with a paltry 3.625 runs per game scored behind him) there is an off chance the White Sox rotation sends two representatives to the All-Star game, although you probably should not hold your breath on that happening this year. Even without the strikeouts, Quintana is more than capable of carrying a team, something he has not had to do thus far in his career. One of the most under-the-radar acquisitions this decade has turned into one of the most under-the-radar pitchers across the major leagues. Pair that with his paltry $5.7 million dollar contract and a 4.0 WAR and you have one of the best bargains in baseball spearheading the Pale Hose’s rotation for the foreseeable future.

2016 predictions: 12-8, 3.24 ERA, 183 K’s, lead the league in no decisions.

Number three: Carlos Rodon

Rodon has seemed like a gift from above ever since he fell to the southsiders with the third pick in the 2014 draft, especially since he was the presumed top amateur baseball player in the country throughout his junior year at North Carolina State. The two teams ahead of the White Sox in that draft even went pitching and passed on Rodon, with the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins taking high school arms in Brady Aiken (who failed to sign) and Tyler Kolek respectively. The Marlins passing on Rodon was especially surprising given that Rodon, who is half-Cuban, could have been a marketing superstar in South Beach until Jeffery Loria shipped him for a Picasso or something.

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Regardless, one must assume the ‘Stros and Fish are kicking themselves over their picks, especially Houston since they could

not sign their pick

following a questionable medical examination and a low-ball offer. The big lefty was heralded as being big-league ready coming out of the draft, with one scout marveling at his slider, naming it a top-ten offering in the majors, before even signing a rookie contract. To this point, nothing has fazed Rodon and he has proved these were not understatements. Rodon likely would have debuted in 2014 if the team that drafted him was fighting for a playoff spot in September. Since the White Sox were long out of the race, they saw no reason to place undue stress on the left arm of their top pick. Once he made his debut however in April of 2015, he has shown the only thing that can hold him back from stardom is his control. During his rookie campaign, the former Wolfpack ace walked nearly five batters per nine innings, but also struck out a tick under a batter per inning, finishing at 8.48 K/9 IP which ranked him ninth across the whole American League, not just rookies. Look for Rodon to flourish next season with a full winter as a big leaguer under his belt.

2016 predictions: 14-12, 3.54 ERA, 176 Ks, one nasty mustache.

Number four: Mat Latos

This winter’s surprise signing by the White Sox came this week in the form of a right handed starting pitcher (a rarity on this team). Latos, who split last year between three clubs (Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) was scooped up on a one year deal. As previously mentioned, some in the industry think this deal could be the best signing of the winter in terms of bang-for-your-buck moves. Latos, who made a name for himself in San Diego, has yet to pitch in the American League, with the exception of a few appearances with the Angels last season, which means he may be in for a bit of a regression this season, but he is still an upgrade over what the fourth starter would have been had the season started February 1st. Latos, who is not a darling in the clubhouse either, will be an ultimate boom-or-bust move. He made waves while with Miami by criticizing the Cincinnati Reds,with whom he pitched for three years (and was teammates with Frazier) by claiming they did not have leadership in the clubhouse or how to treat his knee injury, among other issues. Even with some baggage, he can pitch. Last year was the first time his ERA was on the wrong side of 4.00 since his rookie campaign, when he pitched in only 50.2 innings back in 2009. Still, the White Sox have done well with “troubled” players, namely a couple of fellows in 2005, A.J. Pierzynski and Bobby Jenks and Latos will have almost zero pressure on him this year other than proving last years struggles were a fluke. There is no reason to expect the 6’6″ right-hander to pitch like he did in San Diego and Cincinnati before his injuries, but he is a strong bounce-back candidate if his knee is healthy.

2016 predictions: 9-13, 4.06 ERA, 149 Ks, one argument with Lawrie over who has better arm sleeve tattoos.

Just missing out: Erik Johnson, Jacob Turner

Erik Johnson must have been devastated upon hearing the news of the Latos signing. Just two weeks ago he was signing autographs and taking pictures at SoxFest expecting to be a member of the White Sox starting rotation here in 2016, but his job as the token right-hander was stolen from him. Johnson, who was named the 2015 International League Pitcher of the Year while with the Triple-A Charlotte Knights had finally figured it out. He revealed to Tom Verducci how some mechanical adjustments had allowed him to regain the successes he had entering the 2014 season when he was the White Sox #2 prospect, behind Jose Abreu. By the start of last year he was not on the top ten lists he had that horrid a season two years ago. Once he fixed his mechanics though and was called up to Chicago in September, the former Cal Golden Bear showed he could pitch at the major league level. We may have to wait another year or for an injury to see if he can sustain that level of play past one month. Turner on the other hand was already a long shot to make the club out of spring training, but after being claimed off the Chicago Cubs in October, he was likely the sixth man, now he is the seventh and will need to have an absurdly strong March and some help from injuries to crack the club as they go to Oakland to start the season April 4th or be placed on waivers since he is out of minor league options. Should be pass through waivers unclaimed he will be a strong depth piece for the White Sox pitching come 2016.