Magnum Start Value: Did the King of Safeco Field actually rule in 2014?
Sabermetrics analysis Magnum Start Value provides insight on Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez 2014 season. Was it his best year at Safeco Field?
Over the last decade plus, there has been a constant regardless of team performance pitching for the Seattle Mariners. His name is Felix Hernandez, who is one of the most accomplished hurlers of this century. Given the M’s haven’t been to the postseason since 2001, King Felix has provided those in the Emerald City plenty of reasons to enjoy baseball at Safeco Field.
With that said, how dominant has Hernandez been? Considering that he both led the league in wins (2009) and took home a Cy Young Award (2010), it is safe to say Hernandez has abused opposing hitters around the game. However, there was another season of excellence for The King in 2014, when he posted a career-best WHIP of 0.92. Did that season stack up versus the aforementioned campaign when he brought the Cy Young Award to the Pacific Northwest? Let’s take a look at this through the lens of Magnum Start Value (MSV) to find out.
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Before we proceed, there are some notable differences between the two seasons. First of all, Hernandez did not have the same ability in regards to stuff as in 2010. Just by looking at his fastball you can see the average velocity decreasing by 1.6 MPH (95.1 to 93.5), not to mention there was less of a difference between the heater and changeup (4.7 to 3.6 mph less than fastball). Those numbers are crucial considering how much Hernandez uses the latter with two strikes, and gets batters two swing and miss on top of it.
Moving on to the second and most vital difference, the Mariners themselves. All the way back in 2010, they finished as the second worst team in baseball at 61-101. Not only could the Mariners not hit, they couldn’t field either. With a grand total of 513 runs scored (last in league), and a .982 fielding percentage (tied with six other teams for seventh in league), they failed to put anything close to a competitive roster on the field minus Hernandez and Ichiro Suzuki.
On of the flip side, the 2014 version of the Mariners were a polar opposite. While they had far from a dominant offense (tied for 11th with the Boston Red Sox), their defense was the best on the junior circuit. With only 82 errors all season long, Seattle’s defense kept them in games by catching the ball and giving their pitchers the best chance to win. All baseball fans know that enhances a decent hurler, especially Hernandez.
Considering that MSV was constructed as another option to evaluate the quality start, it makes sense to provide the former with another way to cross-analyze the latter. While the last article may have introduced MO-Dot and MY-Dot, neither offer an exact analysis of the quality start. How could I give the quality start a full toolbox under the Magnum Start umbrella? The answer is simple.
Looking at the prior article, there are a few key stats mentioned. First would be Yearly Magnum Percentage, and second would be those under the MO-Dot and MY-Dot categories. In order to cross-analyze those, I am going to have to give them their equal on the side of quality starts.
Starting the new terminology will be Yearly Quality Percentage (YQP), which is to be used the exact same way YMP is (but for quality starts). However a pitcher qualifies for a quality start the same way he would under regular rules, regardless of whether he gives up two or less earned runs. Secondly, I will allow for MSV to cross-analyze MO-Dot and MY-Dot, however this will be significantly more difficult.
The reason for this is MO-Dot and MY-Dot are broken down by totals when evaluating MSV. However, keep in mind that each total is broken up by inning which is impossible to fully match on the quality start side. So to think this can find its equal is nearly impossible, however it still does serve a purpose.
Here is why. Since they will still be calculated by percentage, it is going to show just as much if an overwhelming amount were recorded closer to six innings or nine. This is not going to be perfect, however it is not expected to be considering the situation we are in. So, let’s get to it!
Just as when I divulged the MO-Dot and MY-Dot categories, they will come in ascending order this time as well. There are four classifications (unlike three), each of which represent the amount of innings a pitcher completed (six through nine). On top of that, I will divide them by monthly and yearly just as before.
Since you are probably wondering about the new verbiage, here it is. For monthly, the stats will be Monthly Hexagonal Percentage (MHP), Heptagonal Monthly Percentage (HMP), Octagonal Monthly Percentage (OMP), and Nonagonal Monthly Percentage (NMP). If you can’t tell, those are titled by the number of innings they represent.
As for those that represent the yearly side of things, they will have a similar feel to the aforementioned stats. These terms are entitled Yearly Hexagonal Percentage (YHP), Heptagonal Yearly Percentage (HYP), Octagonal Yearly Percentage (OYP), and Yearly Nonagonal Percentage (YNP). With that said, let’s move on to the new MO-Dot and MY-Dot verbiage.
While these new stats will serve an identical purpose MO-Dot and MY-Dot, both are going to have different names. To evaluate months the category is QO-Dot (Ko-Dot) and for entire years it is QY-Dot (Ki-Dot). In order to properly calculate these two terms, just divide the amount of quality starts in a month or year against each other. So if there are two quality starts, 50 percent is the only possible result, not 25 percent of each. Remember it is the actual instance a pitcher qualifies when he can becomes eligible for this category, so three and four only become a part of the calculus when there are three and four starts involved.
Had enough talk about new stats? Then let’s analyze King Felix!
April 2010
4/10 @ Texas Rangers: 7 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 2.5 (ND, Mariners win 4-3)
4/21 vs Baltimore Orioles: 9 IP, 9 H, 0 BB, 0 ER: 6.5 (W, Mariners win 4-1)
4/26 @ Kansas City Royals: 7 IP, 7 H, 3 BB’s 2 ER, 1 E: 2.5 (L, Mariners lose 3-1)
April 2010 MMT: 11.5
April 2010 MMA: 2.3
April 2014
4/5 @ Oakland Athletics: 8.1 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 4.75 (W, Mariners win 3-1)
4/11 vs Oakland Athletics: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 2 ER: 3.0 (W, Mariners win 6-4)
4/16 @ Texas Rangers: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 3.0 (ND, Mariners lose 3-2)
4/21 vs Houston Astros: 7 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 2.5 (L, Mariners lose 7-2)
April 2014 MMT: 13.25
April 2014 MMA: 2.65
May 2010
5/13 @ Baltimore Orioles: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 BB’s, 1 ER: 2.5 (ND, Mariners lose 6-5)
5/23 vs San Diego Padres: 7 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 2.5 (L, Mariners lose 8-1)
5/29 @ Los Angeles Angels: 8 IP, 6 H, 3 BB’s, 1 ER: 4.75 (ND, Mariners lose 5-1)
May 2010 MMT: 9.75
May 2010 MMA: 1.63
May 2014
5/18 @ Minnesota Twins: 8 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 4.75 (W, Mariners win 6-2)
5/23 vs Houston Astros: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 4.75 (W, Mariners win 6-1)
5/28 vs Los Angeles Angels: 8.2 IP, 4 H, 2 BB’s, 1 ER: 4.75 (W, Mariners win 3-1)
May 2014 MMT: 14.25
May 2014 MMA: 2.38
June 2010
6/3 vs Minnesota Twins: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 4.75 (W, Mariners win 4-1)
6/13 @ San Diego Padres: 8.2 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 6.44 (W, Mariners win 4-2)
6/19 vs Cincinnati Reds: 9 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 1 E: 9.7 (W, Mariners win 5-1)
6/24 vs Chicago Cubs: 9 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 ER, 1 E: 9.7 (ND, Mariners lose 3-2)
6/30 @ New York Yankees: 9 IP, 2 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 9.7 (W, Mariners win 7-0)
June 2010 MMT: 40.29
June 2010 MMA: 6.72
June 2014
6/2 @ New York Yankees: 7 IP, 8 H, 0 BB, 2 ER: 2.5 (W, Mariners win 10-2)
6/8 @ Tampa Bay Rays: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 ER: 3.0 (ND, Mariners win 5-0)
6/13 vs Texas Rangers: 8.1 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 ER: 4.75 (L, Mariners lose 1-0)
6/18 @ San Diego Padres: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 1 ER: 3.0 (ND, Mariners 2-1)
6/23 vs Boston Red Sox: 7 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 2 ER 1 E: 3.0 (W, Mariners win 12-3)
6/29 vs Cleveland Indians: 8 IP, 1 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 5.5 (W, Mariners win 3-0)
June 2014 MMT: 21.75
June 2014 MMA: 3.54
After two months it seemed as though King Felix had outpitched his Cy Young campaign, however the month of June came along. While he may have posted a solid MO-Dot in May of 2014 (100 percent registered as MPM), Hernandez had an additional quality start (5/7/14) that altered his QO-Dot to 25 percent MHP and 75 percent OMP.
Even though Hernandez had one additional Magnum Start in 2014, his MMT and MMA paled in comparison to 2010. So much so that the former is 19.04 fewer in 2014 not to mention the latter is 3.18 less than 2010. That is astonishing when you consider 2010’s MMA is 6.72, which is elite regardless of who is on the mound.
Moving on to the part when I discuss MO-Dot and QO-Dot, you might be surprised when these stats expose 2010 and 2014 differences. Back in 2010, 40 percent of King Felix’s Magnum Starts ended in the MPM range, while 60 percent finished within the MPP limits. On the flip side, 66.7 percent of his 2014 Magnum Starts ended up inside of the MMP bounds, however the rest (33.3 percent) were recorded as MPM.
Just by looking at the MMT and MMA aspect of Magnum Start Value should be enough to give you a general idea as to how dominant a pitcher is. But, the more essential aspect of MSV may actually be MO-Dot and QO-Dot type statistics. Will we know as of today? No, but that is why many studies must be completed.
Speaking of completing the study, let’s do just that!
July 2010
7/5 vs Kansas City Royals: 7 IP, 6 H, 2 BB’s, 2 ER: 2.5 (ND, Mariners lose 6-4)
7/21 vs Chicago White Sox: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 0 ER: 5.5 (ND, Mariners win 2-1)
July 2010 MMT: 8
July 2010 MMA: 1.33
July 2014
7/5 @ Chicago White Sox: 8 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 5.5 (ND, Mariners win 3-2)
7/11 vs Oakland Athletics: 8 IP, 6 H, 2 BB’s, 2 ER: 4.75 (W, Mariners win 3-2)
7/19 @ Los Angeles Angels: 7 IP, 2 H, 4 BB’s, 0 ER, 1 E: 3.0 (ND, Mariners win 3-2)
7/25 vs Baltimore Orioles: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 BB’s, 1 ER: 3.0 (ND, Mariners lose 2-1)
7/30 @ Cleveland Indians: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 BB’s, 2 ER, 2.5 (L, Mariners lose 2-1)
July 2014 MMT: 18.75
July 2014 MMA: 3.75
August 2010
8/10 vs Oakland Athletics: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 0 ER: 4.75 (W, Mariners win 2-0)
8/20 @ New York Yankees: 8 IP, 4 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 4.75 (W, Mariners win 6-0)
8/25 @ Boston Red Sox: 7.1 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 3.0 (W, Mariners win 4-2)
8/31 vs Los Angeles Angels: 7 IP, 3 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER, 1 E: 3.0 (ND, Mariners win 3-1)
August 2010 MMT: 15.5
August 2010 MMA: 2.58
August 2014
8/5 vs Atlanta Braves: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 5.5 (W, Mariners win 4-2)
8/11 vs Toronto Blue Jays: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 1 ER: 3.0 (W, Mariners win 11-1)
August 2014 MMT: 8.5
August 2014 MMA: 1.7
September 2010
9/5 vs Cleveland Indians: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 ER: 5.5 (W, Mariners win 3-0)
9/17 vs Texas Rangers: 8 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 5.5 (W, Mariners win 2-1)
9/23 @ Toronto Blue Jays: 8 IP, 2 H, 4 BB’s, 1 ER: 4.75 (L, Mariners lose 1-0)
9/28 @Texas Rangers: 8 IP, 5 H, 2 BB’s, 1 ER: 4.75 (W, Mariners win 3-1)
September 2010 MMT: 20.5
September 2010 MMA: 4.1
September 2014
9/3 @ Oakland Athletics: 8 IP, 3 H, 2 BB’s, 1 ER: 5.5 (W, Mariners win 2-1)
9/13 vs Oakland Athletics: 7 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 2 ER: 2.5 (ND, Mariners lose 3-2)
9/18 @Los Angles Angels: 7 IP, 3 H, 2 BB’s, 0 ER: 3.0 (ND, Mariners win 3-1)
September 2014 MMT: 11
September 2014 MMA: 1.83
When all is said and done, both seasons are the best I have studied so far. Hernandez scored a YMT of 105.54 in 2010 and a while a bit lower in 2014, it still came in at a sparkling 87.5. Looking at his YMA he posted a 3.1 in 2010 and a 2.57 four years later, which is far from anything to be ashamed of.
King Felix put up an outstanding YMP as well, however this is the one statistic that will show up in reverse. For the 2010 campaign, Hernandez put up a YMP of 61.8 percent and in 2014 he posted a 67.6 percent for the same category. That is why the MY-Dot and QY-Dot family is so valuable, because it exposes a lesser Magnum Start each and every time.
Speaking of MY-Dot, these two seasons produced some interesting results. Hernandez scored much better in 2010, as he recorded 19 percent of his Magnum Starts in the MPP department. Four years later that total was at zero percent, not to mention 56.5 percent of the time he qualified for a MS it only registered in the MMP category. That meant the remaining 2014 Magnum Starts were considered MPM (43.5 percent of them), therefore he failed to produce one elite start all season under the MSV realm.
Moving forward to QY-Dot, this is even more revealing in regards to what I have previously stated about lesser quality starts. Given there were 30 in 2010 and 27 in 2014 respectively, (which is nine and four greater than before) but those are staggering totals for quality starts in a season. King Felix posted a 16.7 percent in the YNP category for 2010, while 85.2 percent of Hernandez’s Magnum Starts in 2014 resulted in either HYP or OYP.
Before I wrap up, there is one correction that needs to be made to the Windy City article. Jake Arrieta’s 8/9/15 start should be scored a 2.5, which means his 3.64 total you see is incorrect. That reduces Arrieta’s MMT to 15.2 and his MMA a touch lower as well, with it dropping from 2.72 to 2.53 for August of 2015. Feel free to evaluate that total differently now, not that it actually does much to the story.
Next: Michael Kopech Has Solid Final Start of Season
All in all, this article is a lot to digest. The voluminous nature of MSV is going to make it difficult for many to understand, however each stat serves its individual purpose. You could say less is more in some instances, but MSV needs to cross-analyze itself in order to be successful. So prepare yourselves for more articles packed with substantial amounts of analysis in the near future. Until then, have fun digesting King Felix!