Magnum Start Value: Did the King of Safeco Field actually rule in 2014?
By Brian Draus
April 2010
4/10 @ Texas Rangers: 7 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 2.5 (ND, Mariners win 4-3)
4/21 vs Baltimore Orioles: 9 IP, 9 H, 0 BB, 0 ER: 6.5 (W, Mariners win 4-1)
4/26 @ Kansas City Royals: 7 IP, 7 H, 3 BB’s 2 ER, 1 E: 2.5 (L, Mariners lose 3-1)
April 2010 MMT: 11.5
April 2010 MMA: 2.3
April 2014
4/5 @ Oakland Athletics: 8.1 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 4.75 (W, Mariners win 3-1)
4/11 vs Oakland Athletics: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 2 ER: 3.0 (W, Mariners win 6-4)
4/16 @ Texas Rangers: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 3.0 (ND, Mariners lose 3-2)
4/21 vs Houston Astros: 7 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 2.5 (L, Mariners lose 7-2)
April 2014 MMT: 13.25
April 2014 MMA: 2.65
May 2010
5/13 @ Baltimore Orioles: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 BB’s, 1 ER: 2.5 (ND, Mariners lose 6-5)
5/23 vs San Diego Padres: 7 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 2.5 (L, Mariners lose 8-1)
5/29 @ Los Angeles Angels: 8 IP, 6 H, 3 BB’s, 1 ER: 4.75 (ND, Mariners lose 5-1)
May 2010 MMT: 9.75
May 2010 MMA: 1.63
May 2014
5/18 @ Minnesota Twins: 8 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 4.75 (W, Mariners win 6-2)
5/23 vs Houston Astros: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 4.75 (W, Mariners win 6-1)
5/28 vs Los Angeles Angels: 8.2 IP, 4 H, 2 BB’s, 1 ER: 4.75 (W, Mariners win 3-1)
May 2014 MMT: 14.25
May 2014 MMA: 2.38
June 2010
6/3 vs Minnesota Twins: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 4.75 (W, Mariners win 4-1)
6/13 @ San Diego Padres: 8.2 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 6.44 (W, Mariners win 4-2)
6/19 vs Cincinnati Reds: 9 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 1 E: 9.7 (W, Mariners win 5-1)
6/24 vs Chicago Cubs: 9 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 ER, 1 E: 9.7 (ND, Mariners lose 3-2)
6/30 @ New York Yankees: 9 IP, 2 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 9.7 (W, Mariners win 7-0)
June 2010 MMT: 40.29
June 2010 MMA: 6.72
June 2014
6/2 @ New York Yankees: 7 IP, 8 H, 0 BB, 2 ER: 2.5 (W, Mariners win 10-2)
6/8 @ Tampa Bay Rays: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 ER: 3.0 (ND, Mariners win 5-0)
6/13 vs Texas Rangers: 8.1 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 ER: 4.75 (L, Mariners lose 1-0)
6/18 @ San Diego Padres: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 1 ER: 3.0 (ND, Mariners 2-1)
6/23 vs Boston Red Sox: 7 IP, 6 H, 0 BB, 2 ER 1 E: 3.0 (W, Mariners win 12-3)
6/29 vs Cleveland Indians: 8 IP, 1 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 5.5 (W, Mariners win 3-0)
June 2014 MMT: 21.75
June 2014 MMA: 3.54
After two months it seemed as though King Felix had outpitched his Cy Young campaign, however the month of June came along. While he may have posted a solid MO-Dot in May of 2014 (100 percent registered as MPM), Hernandez had an additional quality start (5/7/14) that altered his QO-Dot to 25 percent MHP and 75 percent OMP.
Even though Hernandez had one additional Magnum Start in 2014, his MMT and MMA paled in comparison to 2010. So much so that the former is 19.04 fewer in 2014 not to mention the latter is 3.18 less than 2010. That is astonishing when you consider 2010’s MMA is 6.72, which is elite regardless of who is on the mound.
Moving on to the part when I discuss MO-Dot and QO-Dot, you might be surprised when these stats expose 2010 and 2014 differences. Back in 2010, 40 percent of King Felix’s Magnum Starts ended in the MPM range, while 60 percent finished within the MPP limits. On the flip side, 66.7 percent of his 2014 Magnum Starts ended up inside of the MMP bounds, however the rest (33.3 percent) were recorded as MPM.
Just by looking at the MMT and MMA aspect of Magnum Start Value should be enough to give you a general idea as to how dominant a pitcher is. But, the more essential aspect of MSV may actually be MO-Dot and QO-Dot type statistics. Will we know as of today? No, but that is why many studies must be completed.
Speaking of completing the study, let’s do just that!