Sabermetrics: Can MSV Expose Level of Marco Estrada’s 2017 Dropoff?

April 2016

4/10 vs Boston Red Sox: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 BB’s, 0 ER: 2.5 (W, Blue Jays win 3-0)

April 2016 MMT: 2.5

April 2016 MMA: 0.63

April 2016 QST: 2

April 2017

4/15 vs Baltimore Orioles: 7 IP, 4 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 2.5 (ND, Blue Jays win 2-1)

April 2017 MMT: 2.5

April 2017 MMA: 0.5

April 2017 QST: 4

Estrada had a very poor month of April in terms of MSV scoring, while still pitching well enough to earn it’s quality start status. His MO-Dot and QO-Dot were both poor, as neither was above the bottom two classifications. To clarify things, Estrada posted a 100 percent MMP score for 2016 and ’17 (MO-Dot), however he put up a 50 percent in MHP and HMP last season (QO-Dot). Fast forward to 2017, Estrada’s QST outweighed his Magnum Starts leading to a 75 percent MHP and 25 percent HMP.

To continue with this same thought process, Estrada’s MMT and MMA scores were virtually non-existent. He only registered for a Magnum Start once, and it was the lowest level possible a pitcher could grade out as. So in other words, April wasn’t a very good month for Estrada MSV wise unless you consider one Magnum Start and a few quality starts to be good.