Sabermetrics: Can MSV Expose Level of Marco Estrada’s 2017 Dropoff?
By Brian Draus
May 2016
5/8 vs Los Angeles Dodgers: 7 IP, 3 H, 2 BB’s, 1 ER: 3.0 (ND, Blue Jays lose 4-2)
5/19 @Minnesota Twins: 8 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 5.5 (ND, Blue Jays win 3-2)
5/30 vs New York Yankees: 8 IP, 3 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 4.75 (W, Blue Jays win 4-2)
May 2016 MMT: 13.25
May 2016 MMA: 2.21
May 2016 QST: 5
May 2017
5/1 @ New York Yankees: 7 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 1 ER: 2.5 (W, Blue Jays win 7-1)
5/21 @ Baltimore Orioles: 7.2 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 2.5 (W, Blue Jays win 3-1)
May 2017 MMT: 5
May 2017 MMA: 0.83
May 2017 QST: 4
Moving on to May, Estrada production improved greatly especially when you take into consideration his 2016 season by itself. His MMT and MMA scores were solid, not to mention Estrada posted very good MO-Dot and QO-Dot totals that year. Just in QO-Dot alone, he recorded 40 percent of his Magnum Starts in the OMP department. On top of that, 66.7 percent of his MS would be regarded as MPM, which is in the MO-Dot classification.
However, the month of May wasn’t quite as kind to Estrada in 2017. One-hundred percent of his Magnum Starts were in it’s lowest category (MMP), topped by the fact that his MMT only totaled five for the whole month. QO-Dot wasn’t much kinder to Estrada, which was a 50/50 split between MHP an HMP.