White Sox: Avisail Garcia is Channeling Steve Garvey
Avisail Garcia had a great 2017. Now he will have high expectations going into next season and beyond.
Welcome to the Avisail Garcia story. Up next, Chapter six. Or more specifically, the sixth year of his career with the Chicago White Sox. The first four years look like a trivial set-up. The story got really exciting at year five, and we are all chomping at the bit to see how it progresses in year six.
What do you get when you take a talented young baseball player with great hand-eye coordination, strength and drive, and combine that with a willingness to change their behavior toward achieving a higher-level outcome? You get a player capable of doing something unexpected.
Up to now, Garcia has been forced to shoulder the pressure of living up to high expectations based on his potential. Now he’ll face a different kind of expectations having played to those previous high expectations, even higher actually.
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I don’t think anyone would fess up and say they believed Garcia would hit .330 in 2017. .330 is what great contact hitters do. Wade Boggs, Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, Paul Molitor, George Brett, Jose Altuve – sure. But Garcia? Let’s just say that my expectations were more in the areas of power potential rather than contact potential. But there it is: .330.
Garcia ought to have a bumper sticker that reads, “Hits Happen”.
Most hitters will wait for their pitch and then swing authoritatively when they get it. Conversely, Frank Thomas got into the Hall of Fame with this almost “walk first” approach. I often thought when I watched him he defended the strike zone rather than attacked the pitch, but that speaks to how good he was. A pitcher was not going to force Frank to swing at something not to his advantage. And he rarely did.
Better approach at the plate
This past season I saw Garcia take a different approach. He sought contact. Early in the count he would look for his pitch to take a hard swing. Late or behind in the count, he shortened his swing and adjusted to the pitch – even if the pitch were out of the strike zone. He simply looked to dial in on what was coming wherever, whatever it was to make contact and make something happen.
You never know what you’re going to get when contact is made.
Oh, what a difference a year makes. One year ago at this time the talk was whether the Sox should move on from the investment they made in this youngster. This offseason his name sits alongside none other than Jose Abreu as the rumored marketable talent other clubs are rumored to be pursuing of the Sox.
So where did this come from?
The biggest difference in Garcia that I’ve observed is a change in philosophy. Last offseason he chose to get in better shape, increasing his strength and flexibility, while dropping some weight to add quickness and increase his energy. The decision to make the change facilitated the change itself.
People will call out the exit velocity of his homeruns, the arm strength and outfield assist totals, and the “mini Miggie” resemblance. I think it’s time to credit his maturity and approach. This is a smart player. If you don’t believe that, stop and consider this kid willfully changed his approach, aspired for more, held himself accountable… and then went out and hit .330. Yikes!
And now for the $64,000 question: what’s next?
Maybe Garicia goes out again and hits for a high average, strokes 20-25 home runs, and drive in 80-100 runs. That would be another great year and a likely follow-up All-Star bid. Or maybe like so many pundits are conveniently predicting, he regresses a bit and still has a good year but doesn’t hit .330. Or maybe – just maybe – he outdoes his 2017 performance and smashes everyone’s expectations including his own.
Anything is possible. Which is precisely the point he made in 2017.
Could Garcia end up like Steve Garvey?
I’m reminded of Steve Garvey when I consider what might be possible. Garvey reached 200 hits in three consecutive seasons. Twice (1974-1976, 1978-1980). And the 1977 season, the one in between those two streaks in which he had only 192 hits, saw him hit 33 home runs and 115 RBIs to go with a .297 average. Not bad for a down year. I remember that season. He changed his focus to produce more power and drive in more runs to help fulfill his team’s needs. For the years ‘77-80 as compared to ‘74-76, Garvey increased his average home run total 9.7 per year and RBI total 15.7…while shaving but eight points from his batting average. All by intent.
I might look for the same from Garcia moving forward. We might not see .330 again, but we could. What I really expect to see is an increase in runs scored to the tune of 90-100. And honestly, I would welcome that outcome. 90 runs scored is completely realistic, since it’s the 162-game pace he delivered based on the 75 runs scored in 136 games in 2017.
The Sox could bat him second to get the extra at-bats, allow his high contact rate to compensate for Tim Anderson’s low on-base average, and you likely will have either one if not both serving as table-setters in front of the one-man wrecking machine in Abreu. I believe the average will stabilize at or near the .300 level. Would you take .300 / 90 R / 15 HR / 80 RBI? I’ll bet the Sox would.
Incidentally, Garvey never hit .330. Before I get lit up on social media, in his first ever season he did have one hit in three at-bats – which technically represents a .333 average – but I would consider this an outlier and certainly not enough AB to be eligible for the batting title. Garvey with all his numbers also never had a slugging percentage of .506, which Garcia did in 2017. Are you starting to sense the impact of the change of this kid’s approach and the season he delivered with it?
Hank Aaron once told me that when he was young he was a line drive hitter, but it wasn’t until he was older and began swinging down on the ball that the homers started to come. The change he explained was the backspin that came from the downswing made the ball float and sail further.
Garcia hit more home runs in 2017 than ever before in his 10-year professional career. He might never hit a lot of home runs, but he is likely to make a lot of contact. There will be some carry as he matures, but I think it’s more likely that he’ll continue to get on base with increasing RBI and runs scored totals. From the “What if?” file, I would love to see what his numbers would have looked like had he batted right in front of Abreu for all the 136 games he played this past season.
Next: Trade Market for Jose Abreu May Develop More During Winter Meetings
On whether to trade or keep him I’ll withhold comment. However, he is a very capable player and more mature than he’s given credit for. We may continue to be surprised if the White Sox continue to invest in his potential.