Sabermetrics: The first look at Magnum Start Theory (MST)

SEATTLE - AUGUST 05: Starting pitcher Felix Hernandez
SEATTLE - AUGUST 05: Starting pitcher Felix Hernandez /

Sabermetrics analyzation of Magnum Start Theory focuses on 2010 season of Felix Hernandez, 2016 season of C.C. Sabathia.

In the previous article discussing combimetrics, I alluded to potentially beginning to discuss the evaluation of pitchers using Magnum Start Theory (MST). While this will be used for comparing a hurlers’ ability equally regardless of team performance, the question is how should I quantify such data?

To begin, it makes sense to have a pair of starters to compare. For this study, I will evaluate the seasons of C.C. Sabathia and Felix Hernandez, from their 2016 and 2010 seasons respectively. Now before we move any further, it must be stated that the former played on a team with much more talent around him. This can be seen in the Yankees 2016 record (84-78) while the Mariners went 61-101 in 2010.

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Now, how should this formula be created? Considering that the Yankees were three games over .500 (will explain), that should be included. When creating this formula, the teams’ record, run total, as well as error total need to be calculated. All of these must be measured off of the league average, or in New York’s case, 81-81. Since they won 84 games, the Sabathia would have points detracted because of his clubs success.

As for the other two, they will be measured off of league average. For example, if a team scores x amount less than average, the pitcher would gain y points. In regards to errors, assuming that a hurlers club gave up less than average, he would gain points.

Just by looking at Hernandez’s YMT and YMA, it is off the charts. He posted 105.54 in the former category while racking up a 3.1 in the latter. Sabathia never recorded more than two Magnum Starts in a month, meaning it is worthless to compare their scores? Or is there more to it than that?

After saying that, not only was Sabathia on a superior club, he failed to post a YMA of more than 1.38 in a single month. Comparatively speaking, Hernandez only recorded a lower score once in 2010 (July-1.33), while putting up the ridiculous totals that exceed four twice (June and September).

Before wrapping up this article, it makes sense to divulge what could be some of the formula. It would be as follows: a or c(-81+)+ b or d(-avg league err+)+e or f(-avg league runs+)=x. The reason I am using so many variables is simple, due to the fact that the number in the parenthesis could be a negative, a different number should be multiplied by it.

For those wondering what the -/+ indicates, unless the pitcher’s team is exactly even, he will be evaluated be either or. In the case that a teams’ score is the aforementioned scenario, then zero will be his total. I might just put him at the positive variable designated for that portion of the formula if that situation does present itself.

Next: Saturday Review: Does Eloy Jimenez Have Any Flaws?

All in all, this will be an interesting concept to develop over the coming months. I am hoping this works in a similar manner to WAR (wins above replacement), where it shows how valuable a player is by his contributions to a team, regardless of their teammates. Given it has a long way to go before it becomes that but stick around, much more to come.