Magnum Start Value: Chris Archer and statistical analysis
By Brian Draus
Magnum Start Value analyzes the career of the current Tampa Bay Rays ace. How has the pitcher fared over the course of his career with the Rays?
For those who follow major league baseball closely, you would know that some of it’s smallest markets have players with immense talent. This may be difficult for fans of those clubs, mostly due to the fact that it is nearly impossible to keep them past their arbitration years. So why I am mentioning small market teams? Since there hasn’t been a Magnum Start Value article in a bit, I will analyze two seasons of Tampa Bay Rays hurler Chris Archer using MSV and traditional statistics.
Since Archer has always been an electric talent on the mound, one would wonder what happened to him after the 2015 season? From 2013-15 he did not post an ERA above 3.33, however since then Archer has failed to keep it below four. Can statistics under the MSV umbrella shed more light on his decline?
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First of all, this study will evaluate Archer’s 2015 and ’16 campaigns. There is such a vast decline in performance from ’15-16 it is hard to explain. Not only did his ERA jump 0.79 over a one-year span (3.23 to 4.02), he nearly lost twenty games in ‘16 (9-19).
However, it may be even more telling if Archer’s MSV scores drastically decrease as well. Just by looking at his Yearly Magnum Percentage (YMP) totals, it is exactly what occurred. While he recorded a Magnum Start in 35.3 percent of his 2015 outings, Archer only posted a MS 9.1 percent of the time he pitched in 2016.
Archer’s YMP scores are even more evident when you look at the amount of Magnum Starts he had in short timespans. In both April and June of 2015 Archer recorded three starts under the MSV umbrella, while he only posted that total for all of 2016. Keep in mind Archer tallied additional Magnum Starts in ’15, however his ’16 campaign was so poor that he rarely went seven innings or more (only eight times-not all Magnum Starts).
One area Archer did produce well in 2015 and 2016 were bats missed. He fanned 252 batters in 2015, not to mention it did not significantly decrease with his production in ’16 (233). Those numbers may seem spectacular all in themselves, but when his K/BB rate was 3.82/1 and 3.48/1 the following year it increases the awe factor when discussing them.
Next: Pair of injuries in White Sox win over Arizona
All in all, there is still reason to hope for Archer’s return to prominence if you are a Rays fan. This is due to the aforementioned paragraph, as anytime a pitcher has yet to lose his ability to miss bats he can still dominate on a consistent basis. If Archer can get quick outs his MSV scores will escalate, which should aid his overall performance. Stay tuned, much more to come.