White Sox: Answering the key questions from Spring Training 2018
Back in mid-February, I published a post “White Sox Real Questions for Spring Training 2018″.
As the White Sox look to open the season, I thought it might be entertaining to revisit those questions and see what answers emerged.
I’ll post each question as it appeared in that post, followed by the emerged answer. Here goes – this should be fun.
#1: Who wins the center-field job?
The outcome will reveal a lot about the 2018 Sox. Do they emphasize defense and range to help their young pitchers? Do they look for more of an offensive contributor, or do they use a platoon of players to hold the position down in this year of low expectations? My hunch is the team will have plenty of offense and that stellar defense and speed on the basepaths will be prioritized. Leury Garcia may be opening day starter, but the future center fielder may be Adam Engel or Charlie Tilson – and this may be revealed if either performs well in spring training.
ANSWER – Adam Engel won this contest authoritatively and showed why he was the MVP of the 2016 Arizona Fall League. Engel is the real deal, and it appears for 2018 his offensive skills may have caught up to his defensive. It will be fascinating to see if he further develops what conundrum the White Sox may face between him and emerging future talent Luis Robert.
#2 How will the young starting pitchers perform?
Sure, it’s just the spring and not like we’re holding anyone to Wins and Losses in March. However, a forward-looking indicator may be if Carson Fulmer, Reynaldo Lopez, and Lucas Giolito log solid innings without taking significant amounts of punishment. They’ll be working on things which is what the spring is about, but the degree of success versus failure may well extend into the season and could play into the club’s decisions who to break camp with and what the starting rotation looks like.
ANSWER – With young pitchers meaning – for the most part – Giolito, Lopez, Fulmer, Michael Kopech, Dane Dunning and Dylan Cease, overall very good. Giolito, Dunning, and Cease I would describe as very solid. Giolito truly looks ready. Dunning was surprisingly solid and consistent facing Major League hitters. Cease looks absolutely lights out. (Cubs fans will one day realize Eloy Jiminez is not the only player they regret losing in the Jose Quintana trade…).
On the other hand, Fulmer had a difficult spring before tossing 4 no-hit innings against the Diamondbacks and then 5.1 IP allowing one earned run in his final B-game start against the Rangers. Kopech pitched moderately well until getting shelled in his final start before being assigned. Lopez pitched relatively well in the first two innings of each start only to be touched in mid-innings. Pitching emerged to clearly be the talent core driving the rebuild, and all in all the starters look capable and ready to be tested.
#3 Who plays third base?
Matt Davidson appears the apparent starter but there are a number of unsigned free agents including Mike Moustakas. What will the team choose to do? Yolmer Sanchez could also get a look here if he has a solid spring and warrants a starting role, which would send Davidson into the DH role. The decision of who plays third base is a key one. Add a capable power hitter to a lineup that includes Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia, Yoan Moncada, Nicky Delmonico, Tim Anderson, and Welington Castillo – and you have one heck of an offense. I will not be surprised if the team signs Moustakas, moves Davidson to designated hitter and uses Sanchez in a utility role.
ANSWER – Davidson is the guy. Sanchez is a viable alternative, allowing Davidson to slip over to DH duty as the team desires. He crushed the ball, tied for the team in home runs with four and led all MLB with 19 RBIs this spring. From a business perspective, it seems the Sox didn’t need to spend any money on any of the available free agents like the guy in K.C. who re-signed for a measly one-year deal at $6.5M and laundry service.
#4 Who wins the backup catcher position?
A backup backstop isn’t exactly everyone’s vision of an impact role, but with this young pitching staff, the potential for contribution is especially high. Kevan Smith demonstrated solid offense in 2017 but threw out only 8 of 64 base stealers for a dismal caught stealing percentage of 13 percent. Omar Narvaez was slightly better in the category at 24 percent, but drove in only 14 runs in 295 plate appearances. A key to the White Sox starters success in 2018 will be minimizing the number of runners in scoring position. Wellington Castillo led the majors in 2017. His backup will be key in 2018.
ANSWER…Kind Of – Narvaez heads North with the team but not necessarily because he decisively won the position. With Smith starting the season on the Disabled List due to a high ankle sprain, Narvaez is the only one of the two who could break camp with the team. Castillo was always going to be the primary catcher based on the team’s signing and financial commitment, not to mention his offensive and defensive abilities. With Smith healing, Narvaez has the opportunity to truly win the role by performing with the big league club.
#5 Which relief pitchers break camp with the Sox which and who will be the closer?
All the starting pitching and offense in the world may be for naught if the team can’t hold leads and close games. The acquisitions of Joakim Soria and Luis Avilan was key. Is Nate Jones healthy? Does Juan Minaya retain a closer role? Do Aaron Bummer or Brad Goldberg head to Chicago or Charlotte? And do the bets they placed on Danny Farquhar, Jeanmar Gomez or Bruce Rondon pay off?
The clock begins ticking on Tuesday when pitchers and catchers report. The future starts then. Fasten your seatbelts, Sox fans, the year is going to be fun no matter the team’s final record.
ANSWER – Closer looks to be Jones but Ricky may decide this game by game. The rest of the pen features youth in Bummer, Minaya and Gregory Infante as well as trade acquisitions Avilan and Soria and signings Farquhar and Hector Santiago. The eight-man pen includes three lefties and overall pitched pretty well in Spring Training. Of those not making the cut, Chris Volstad, in particular, pitched exceptionally well and likely be called up in the event a roster spot opens due to injury or trade.
FINAL GRADE – B+
Overall, I believe Rick Hahn again mastered the total talent pool exceptionally well. The team spent modestly while filling pitching needs in the rotation and bullpen, a single trade and several shrewd acquisitions adequately covering their needs. Further investing in their young players such as Matt Davidson and Adam Engel by giving them the chance to perform helped the team avoid unnecessary free agent acquisitions.
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The Welington Castillo signing still looks odd to me, however, as one could make the case the team did not need to do this. But, Hahn made this signing very early winter meetings process and may have tried to get a jump what no one knew yet would be a very slow offseason for free agents. In a normal year, this would have been a great signing. An, this past winter perhaps not so much.
Final thoughts
To paraphrase Bill Clinton’s election strategy in 1992 “It’s the economy, stupid” one can look at the White Sox strategy as “It’s the rebuild, stupid.” The team’s decisions during Spring Training demonstrate it is all about developing the youth of this rebuild this year at all levels of the organization by investing in its top prospects and their upside potential and not current performance.
Next: The White Sox home field ballparks
Simply put, it’s unrealistic to expect the team to invest in any player who does not figure into helping the team in 2019 and beyond. If a player does not fit that profile requirement, they are extraneous to this model.