White Sox: 2018 predictions from the Southside Showdown writers

The White Sox have played 12 of their 162 games so far. Four of the team’s games have needed to be rescheduled due to inclement weather.

So, technically, the White Sox season is still young. With 150 games left to play, it’s still safe to share the predictions of the staff of writers at Southside Showdown.

Prior to the season, I asked all of the writers to answer a handful of questions. There are nine baseball fans who write for Southside Showdown. Each one of them had a unique take on the 2018 White Sox season. But, they also had similar predictions for a few of the questions.

Some of the questions were team specific, while others focused on the MLB as a whole. Some of the writers went into deep detail on their answers, while others were short and sweet. It is clear that the Southside Showdown writers have an affinity for their Pale Hose, but that they also know a little something about the rest of the League.

Unexpected outcomes already

Being 12 games into the season, it is interesting to see how their predictions have played out so far. Professional baseball is an odd game that can be incredibly difficult to predict. I don’t think anyone predicted that Matt Davidson would have the second-most home runs in all of the MLB. I also don’t think anyone could have predicted that New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Los Angeles Dodgers would be where they are in the standings.

Let’s take a look at what our writers are predicting for the 2018 season:

The first question I asked was: Where will the White Sox place in the AL Central in 2018?

These were the answers:

• Etheria: 2nd
• Roger: 3rd
• Joe: 3rd
• Darrell: 3rd
• Brian: 3rd
• Ruben: 3rd
• Nicole: 3rd
• Jeff: 4th
• Me: 3rd

A few of the writers shared their thoughts on the answer. Ruben predicted the team will finish third, but he is hopeful that a second-place finish could happen. But, that would be based on whether or not Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Matt Davidson, and Nicky Delmonico arrive a year earlier than they’re supposed to.

Darrell summed up what most of the writers were thinking.

“I think the Sox will finish third in the AL Central, behind Cleveland (1) and Minnesota (2), who will end the season within five games of each other. The Sox will only be a few games behind the division leaders, surprising much of the baseball world.”

Where the Sox are now

To date, the White Sox are in third place in the AL. Even after the unfortunate sweep at the hands of the Detroit Tigers, the White Sox are 4-8, just a half-game ahead of the kitties. The Twins are in first place with the Indians only a half-game behind. The Royals are at the bottom with a record of 3-10. With the cold weather in the AL Central, teams have not had much opportunity to show what they can do. They also haven’t had much opportunity to get any outdoor practice in, either.

Predicting a win-loss record is difficult, but our writers gave it a go.

I’m not sure what their thought processes were on this question, but these are the answers to this question: What will the White Sox win-loss record be? And, will the team get into the playoffs?

• Etheria: 85-77. Yes through the second Wild Card spot.
• Roger:  74-88. No.
• Joe: 79-83. No.
• Darrell: 82-80. No, but they will be close to the second Wild Card.
• Brian: 75-87. No.
• Ruben: 82-80 or 84-78. No, but they’ll be close.
• Nicole: 75-87. No.
• Jeff: 72-90. Not this year.
• Me: 82-80. No.

Four of the nine expect the White Sox to have a winning season. The rest are not as hopeful. Darrell is the most hopeful as he expects the Sox to be just a few games out of a Wild Card berth. Ruben and I both are of the mind that the Sox will be flirting with .500 for most of the season. Sadly, we’re a little far off from reality with the current standings.

The worst records in recent history

If the Sox stay on their current pace, their 162-game record would be 54-108. Records like this don’t happen very often. In fact, in the 2000s, only 2003 Tigers and 2004 Diamondbacks have had records below this threshold. The 2003 Tigers were 43-119 and the Diamondbacks were 51-111. The most recent team with a .333 season was the 1998 Florida Marlins.

The worst White Sox record in history was in 1932 when the team finished 49-102, a .325 season. In the 162-game era, the worst Sox record was in 1970 when they finished 56-106, a .346 season.

The 2018-2019 off-season has one of the most remarkable lists of free agents in recent memory.

This means that there could be some serious movement at the July Trade Deadline as teams drop players to open up salary money.

The White Sox have a young squad of up-and-comers, but there are always needs that can be filled. One notable spot is third base. And, many are predicting that if the Baltimore Orioles are not contending, they could offer up Manny Machado to the highest bidder. The Sox were in on Machado in the previous off-season, but nothing came to fruition.

Will the White Sox be buyers or sellers at the Trade Deadline? Or will they stand pat?

• Etheria: Stand pat, unless they are significantly below .500, then they will sell.
• Roger: They will sell and the players will include: Davidson, Joakim Soria, James Shields, Nate Jones, and Avisail Garcia.
• Joe: Sellers, but he’s not expecting the market to be good. He thinks the team will look to move Garcia, Shields, or Jose Abreu.
• Darrell: Sellers.
• Brian: Sellers in both July and August.
• Ruben: Stand pat.
• Nicole: Sellers.
• Jeff: Sellers at both.
• Me: Sellers.

Darrell was the most enthusiastic about the possibility of an updated Sox team come July. He said:

“Sell, sell, sell, baby! Anyone not considered an integral and/or club controlled piece of the future has a chance to be moved. Miguel Gonzalez (again), Joakim Soria, Danny Farquhar, and Nate Jones stand out as most likely to find themselves on the move. Avisail Garcia is the likeliest position player to be traded, but I see him staying put. A few things break the Sox way, however, and the deep farm system might be parlayed into some supplementary upgrades.”

I’m of the same mindset as Darrell. The Sox have a mixed squad with a few veterans who could provide value at the deadline. Soria is one of the most likely players to be dealt, especially with the value that good relievers have in today’s game. It would be difficult to imagine a Sox team without Abreu as having a veteran or two is valuable to a team in rebuild mode.

The White Sox have a collection of outstanding players who could have break-out or comeback seasons.

Many of the players could become household names outside of Chicago if they do what they are expected to do in 2018. When I asked who will be the White Sox MVP in 2018, these were the answers:

• Etheria: Abreu
• Roger: Abreu
• Joe: Anderson
• Darrell: Anderson
• Brian: Abreu
• Ruben: Abreu or Moncada
• Nicole: Moncada
• Jeff: Davidson
• Me: Lopez

Again, Darrell gave a quotable explanation for his choice of Anderson as the team MVP. He said:

“White Sox MVP in 2018 will be Tim Anderson. Jose Abreu and Yoan Moncada will each have big years, but Anderson will serve as a Scott Podsednik-esque spark plug, powering the offense.”

How are we doing so far?

I was the only writer who did not look to the offense for the team MVP. I picked Lopez to have an outstanding season and earn the title of “Ace” for 2018. While teams need to score runs to win, they also need to have pitchers they can always rely on – Lopez could be that guy.

Twelve games in, Lopez has an ERA of 0.69, which is the best in the rotation. Davidson has five home runs, 10 RBIs, and a 1.007 OPS. Abreu is hitting .250/.333/.479 with three home runs. And, Moncada is off to a slow start hitting .184/.298/.306 with one home run. Anderson is hitting .267/.327/.489 with three home runs.

This last slide is all about the MLB as a whole and what could happen in 2018.

The MLB is loaded with fascinating, athletic players. In 2017, no one expected Aaron Judge to have the season that he had. Every season has a story, so I asked the writers to predict a big event for 2018. No one predicted weather to be the story of the season. And, some had more than one prediction.

These were their predictions:

• Etheria: Manny Machado will be traded to New York.
• Roger: Machado gets traded to Phillies, Brewers, Cardinals, or Angels.
• Joe: Machado signs with the White Sox and Harper re-signs with Washington.
• Darrell: Jose Abreu hits 40 home runs. Fernando Tatis, Jr homers in his first MLB at-bat. Mike Trout becomes the fifth member of 40/40 club.
• Brian: Sox deal multiple relievers away (same trade) for a top 100 prospect.
• Ruben: A player will hit 70 HR and a pitcher will get 20 strikeouts in a game.
• Nicole: Michael Kopech will be the Rookie of the Year.
• Jeff: Davidson hits 30 HR and Moncada has a 20 HR – 20 SB season.
• Me: J.D. Martinez and Bryce Harper will each hit 50 home runs.

So far, the big stories in 2018 have involved a few players. Shohei Ohtani who has become a much different player than we saw in Spring Training. Bryce Harper is leading the MLB with six home runs. And, five pitchers already have complete games: Max Scherzer, Jameson Taillon, Jose Berrios, Carlos Carrasco, and Corey Kluber. But, it’s only April 15.

Thoughts on Machado

It is clear that Machado is still on the minds of White Sox fans. He does become a free agent at the end of the 2018 season. The Orioles owner is not known for being a big spender, except in odd situations. Unfortunately for the O’s fans, big money was spent on other players which doesn’t leave much for Machado. The odds are good he will wear a new uniform in 2019. While he would be a good fit for the White Sox, there are a few other teams who will woo him with all they can. He most likely will not be signed by an AL East team.

The other big story has been the weather. Sales in team balaclavas have to be skyrocketing. You can buy your very own White Sox on-field balaclava here.

Next: Yoan Moncada is struggling so far in 2018