Colson Montgomery's late-season slump gives White Sox difficult decision for ALDS lineup vs Guardians

I was a relatively big defender of Colson Montgomery for most of this season. I defended his high strikeout rate and struggles with hitting-for-average, and instead pointed to his power and defensive skillset. But his strikeouts got substantially worse as the season progressed, and with the postseason upon us, it's become tougher to justify a spot for Montgomery in the regular Postseason lineup.

Those strikeouts have been Montgomery's white whale. That's a part of his three-true outcome profile, and he did strikeout at a 29.2% rate in 2025, according to BaseballSavant.. But that number has shot up to 35.6% this year; he broke MLB's single-season strikeout record, going down 227 times in the regular season. For comparison, he had 83 Ks in 71 games last year, and that was still too many.

Maybe his strikeouts would be more forgivable if he could compensate for them. He's striking out at the same rate as Munetaka Murakami, and his raw number of Ks is only higher because he's played more games. But Montgomery's struggles are going much deeper than just striking out--he's lost his ability to impact the game in any meaningful sense.

Last year, Montgomery had a .311 OBP driven by an 8.8% walk rate and a .239 average. You probably want a three-true outcome to walk much more than the league average (which is about 8.4%), rather than lining up with it. That .311 OBP was just too low, but at least it was palatable. Those old numbers were seen as acceptable, because it was Montgomery's rookie year and he seemed to be on an upward trajectory.

Montgomery's OBP has regressed to .282, his walk rate is still just average (8.5%), and his BA has gone down to .197. There's just no way to justify keeping a player in the everyday line-up if he can't hit .200. He's only gotten 112 hits in 153 games, and he's been out in about 72% of his PAs. His Whiff% is 37.5%, compared to a league average of 25%, and he has 32.4% Chase% compared to the MLB-average of 28.6%. It's okay to look past all of that if he's at least hitting home runs to make up for it, but his home run in Wild Card Game 1 was just his third since the beginning of September.

Most of the time he's just getting himself out, and he seems to be losing his eye at the plate. He's also been trending downward all year--in September he went 8-for-81, with just 8 hits and 8 walks in 93 PAs; good for a .099/.215/.210 slash line. I hate to say it, but that looks too much like a player about to get DFA'd, rather than a starting shortstop.

Colson Montgomery can still fix his troubles, but the Postseason isn't that time

I'm certainly not saying this is Montgomery's new standard. He's been in slumps before, and worked through them. His major league career was kick-started by a stint on the minor league developmental list, after he had a severe slump in Triple-A. It's encouraging that he hasn't stopped walking, and he does make pretty good contact when he actually reaches the ball (.421 wBAcon, compared to a league-average of .377). His power is obviously something special, and it would be a waste to give up on him.

His struggles can, and absolutely should, be addressed during the off-season. I think he should be part of the White Sox core line-up, and I'm definitely not advocating for a DFA; I'd hate to see him jettisoned. Teams forgive a lot if a player has raw power or elite defense, and Montgomery has both--something that's a rarity among ballplayers. He doesn't need great averages, but they have to be better than this. Making him the everyday shortstop for the post-season just isn't realistic when he's in such a bad slump.

So who could replace him? Luisangel Acuna is the Sox back-up infielder, but he's not a good choice for an everyday role; he has a .537 OPS with two home runs. He does quite well as a pinch-hitter/pinch-runner, but not in the starting lineup. But Chase Meidroth can play short, even if he profiles better as a second baseman. Left fielder Sam Antonacci is a natural second baseman who switched to the outfield because of availability, but he could move to second with Meidroth on short.

That would leave left field open, but the Sox have enough depth to fill that spot, too. Randal Grichuk, Andrew Benintendi, and Brenton Doyle are all outfielders that don't play everyday. Doyle mostly has a platoon role against lefties, and the other two generally D.H. But between the three of them, both the left field and D.H spots could be filled without giving up much of a platoon advantage. It's the better solution, but it should even out to league-average offense that Montgomery isn't really providing now.

Or at least, he's not providing it often enough. In Game 1 of the Wild Card series, Montgomery was the No 9 batter. He had three at-bats and smashed a solo homer. There's a place for his power on the postseason roster, but he shouldn't play every day. Until he can come out of his slump, he should have to earn his chances to come of the bench.

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