Would the Chicago White Sox Have Received Better Players For Dylan Cease From The Texas Rangers?
The Texas Rangers were reportedly interested in acquiring Dylan Cease as well.
The Chicago White Sox traded ace pitcher Dylan Cease to the San Diego Padres but there was a possibility Cease could have ended up with the Texas Rangers.
The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported the day before Cease was traded to the Padres that the Rangers were preparing an offer to acquire Dylan.
What I’m hearing about the trade talks for White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease. Story: https://t.co/jiIglQq07t
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) March 13, 2024
It is unknown if the Rangers were willing to beat the Padres' offer. We do know San Diego gave up a young, inexpensive setup man in Steven Wilson and three prospects that immediately were ranked among the Sox's top 10 prospects.
Pitcher Drew Thorpe may have the best changeup in the minor leagues. Jairo Iriarte has the potential to be a solid starting pitcher or closer. Outfielder Samuel Zavala is a prospect who might finally solve the White Sox's eternal problem in right field.
I am not going to go in-depth here on these prospects since a deep dive has already been done on this site.
It is worth comparing to see if the Sox would have gotten better prospects had they acquired the Rangers' fifth, seventh, and eighth-ranked prospects. Thorpe was the Padres' fifth-ranked prospect and the No. 85 overall prospect according to MLB Pipeline. Zavala was the seventh-rated prospect in San Diego's system while Iriarte was No. 8.
That means the Rangers would have had to have traded infielder Justin Foscue, who is Texas' fifth-best prospect. They would have included their seventh-ranked prospect in outfielder Anthony Gutierrez and pitcher Jack Leiter, the No. 8 prospect in their system. If Texas had to involve a setup man, it probably would be 30-year-old Josh Sborz.
Wilson is 29 and is not arbitration-eligible until next year. Sborz is in his first arbitration season making $1.025 million. Wilson had a 3.91 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 2023. Sborz had a 5.50 ERA last season, but he had some bad luck once the ball was in play considering he finished with a 3.75 FIP. Wilson is a year younger and has an extra year of team control, so the Sox made out better there.
Also, the White Sox seemed interested in getting two pitching prospects back and not two hitters. In Rosenthal's story (link requires subscription), the Sox were interested in Leiter, but they also wanted the Rangers' top pitching prospect and No. 4 overall, Brock Porter along with young utility player Ezequiel Duran.
Would a combination of Porter, Leiter, Duran, Foscue, or Gutierrez be better than what the Sox got from the Padres?
Brock Porter
Porter was ranked 88 among the MLB Pipeline's top 100 prospects. So immediately Thorpe is considered the better prospect. Brock also has one season of minor-league ball. He had a 2.47 ERA last in Low-A ball. Opposing hitters hit just .161 off of him. His fastball can hit 100mph from time-to-time.
Porter has better velocity than Thorpe, but Drew might be in the rotation by the All-Star break. Porter's arrival in the majors is estimated to be in 2026 at the earliest.
Justin Foscue
The infielder has made it all the way to Triple-A. His slash line was .266/.394/.468 in 2023. He has a career .499 slugging percentage in three minor league seasons. He can certainly drive the ball with 50 career home runs during his time in the minors.
His arm and defensive range are not that good. The feeling is he will have to play first or DH at the major league level. The Sox are set there with Andrew Vaughn and Eloy Jimenez. Also, he is 25. If he was the position player in the deal, the Sox would be getting a prospect who is six years older than Savala.
Anthony Gutierrez
Like Savala, he is 19. He has made it as high as Low-A ball. His slash line was .259/.326/.338. A .338 slugging percentage in 78 games are concerning. He is also still raw at the plate where Zavala is already showing tremendous patience at the plate and an ability to drive the ball with his numbers.
Gutierrez also bats right-handed while Zavala swings from the left side. The Sox system can always use left-handed hitting.
Jack Leiter
Leiter can match Thorpe in terms of the level of minor-league experience reached. Although Leiter only made one start at Triple-A. He had a 5.19 ERA in 20 starts at Double-A last season. Iriarte had a 4.30 ERA in seven Double-A starts last season.
He is struggling to command his fastball. That was an elite pitch he had in college that made him the No. 2 overall pick in 2021. His mechanics can also get out of whack. While he has tantalizing stuff when it is right, there is a lot of development needed to harness it. Thorpe and Iriarte do not seem to require that much attention to be a big-leaguer pitcher.
Ezequiel Duran
The utility infielder had a .276/.324/.443 slash line in 122 games last season. He finished with a wRC+ of 107 and a 0.9 fWAR. He would certainly fit with the White Sox's offseason of acquiring players with a one-fWAR.
He is 24 and not even arbitration-eligible until 2026. That is a young, cheap player who can play all over the field. That is a player the Sox could have tried out at second and see if he can solve that eternal position problem.
Duran is more of a third baseman. He would be good insurance in case Yoan Moncada is injured again or underachieves again. The team can move on from Moncada in that instance after this season as they have a club option on him for next season.
When you compare what the Rangers could have given the Sox in a similar deal of prospect rankings or the Sox's request, it looks like the Padres provided the better caliber of players.
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