It cannot be overstated how remarkable the rise of Shane Smith was in 2025. In just a few months, Smith went from being left off the Brewers 40-man roster, to being selected by the White Sox in Rule 5, to representing the White Sox in the all-star game. Smith’s emergence as an all-star level starting pitcher feels like only the beginning of what he’s capable of, and a statistic putting him in the same category as Pirates ace Paul Skenes should have fans feeling even more excited about his future.
Shane Smith's fastball was truly elite in 2025
In a Foolish Baseball youtube video from earlier this offseason discussing Paul Skenes, a list was posted including the top pitches based on run value in 2025. For four-seam fastballs, Skenes led the way at +23, with other top names on the list including Jacob deGrom, Bryan Woo, Ryne Nelson, Hunter Greene, Kevin Gausman, and, you guessed it, Shane Smith. For those unfamiliar, run value is a statistic that measures the outcomes of a specific pitch to determine how effective it was. Smith’s +19 value estimates that 19 runs were prevented because of effective use of his fastball, leaving it among the top 10 best pitches in baseball last season.
Obviously, Shane Smith is not at the same level as Paul Skenes, who has won Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards in his first two seasons. But having a pitch in the same conversation is extremely encouraging for the guy the White Sox hope will anchor their pitching staff this season. For all the talk of the changeup Smith added upon joining the White Sox organization, his fastball was his best pitch last season and is the real fuel behind his success.
Career-high 8 strikeouts for Shane Smith 👏 pic.twitter.com/Bk9epB43h1
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) August 7, 2025
Smith could benefit from improving location on his offspeed pitches this season, and his walk rate was a bit higher than the White Sox would’ve liked, but 2025 was his first opportunity as a full-time starter, so the main objective was to increase his innings load. Now that a full season as a starter is under his belt, Smith can work on refining his arsenal and building on his early success. The White Sox starting rotation may be the key to their success in 2026, and Smith taking a step forward will be a crucial step toward the rotation being a strength.
Shane Smith has a long way to go to become a truly elite starting pitcher in Major League Baseball like Paul Skenes, but he certainly has the makeup to thrive at the top of the White Sox rotation. And any time you’re mentioned in the same conversation as Skenes, you know you’re in good company.