White Sox will only go as far as this area of the roster will take them in 2026

As the 2026 MLB season rapidly approaches, White Sox fans have gotten their first taste of the roster with a week of Cactus League action. Early spring games have featured a few standouts, a few intriguing roster battles, and a whole lot of optimism. But are the White Sox players correct when they view the 2026 roster as a playoff team? In my opinion, a playoff appearance is unlikely, but there’s one key area that will determine how big of a step forward this team can take this season: the starting rotation. 

The White Sox lineup is full of young, exciting hitters and the offense looked strong in the second half of 2026. Adding Munetaka Murakami and Austin Hays to a young group looking to take a step forward should undoubtedly make the offense respectable this season. The White Sox improved on their inconsistent bullpen by adding Seranthony Dominguez, Sean Newcomb, and Jordan Hicks and will bring back Grant Taylor, Mike Vasil, and Jordan Leasure after strong showings in 2025. The bullpen as a whole should be much-improved and could even be a strength for the team. The biggest questions, I think, are in the starting rotation. Let’s break down the group. 

The White Sox starting rotation group is full of questions

RHP Shane Smith was one of the biggest stories of the 2025 season, going from Rule 5 pick to all-star in the same year. Smith got off to a strong start before running into a rough patch midseason. He spent a couple weeks on the IL to give his arm a rest and came back stronger than ever, pitching possibly his best game of the year in his final start of the season. He’ll look to take a step forward and build on his 146.1 inning mark, but he’ll need to improve his curveball and slider, which were actually hit fairly hard last year. Smith looked a bit wild in his first spring outing, so the White Sox will hope he can harness his control and at least repeat his excellent 2025. 

RHP Davis Martin posted decent results in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, but the underlying metrics were a bit concerning. Martin’s control was solid and he got a decent number of ground balls, but he failed to strike hitters out at the rate he would’ve liked and gave up a large amount of hard contact. Martin’s xERA of 5.13 implied some luck worked in his favor in 2025, so he’ll need to work on putting hitters away and locating better to reduce hard contact this season. The White Sox will need him to be a reliable mid-rotation starter to take a step forward. 

LHP Anthony Kay makes his return to the big league mound after two years overseas and reworking his arsenal. His dominant 2025 in Japan was largely due to reliance on his sinker allowing him to generate a ridiculously high ground ball rate. Japanese competition is different than he’ll see in the major leagues however, so he’ll need to adjust his arsenal to best attack big league hitters. There’s a lot of variance in possible outcomes here. Kay could end up being one of the best value signings of the offseason, or regress back to his pre-Japan numbers. His success translating over would be an excellent development for the White Sox rotation. 

RHP Erick Fedde returns to the White Sox after the team traded him to the Cardinals back in 2024. 2025 was undoubtedly a rough year for Fedde, who spent time with three different teams and took a pretty big step back in his effectiveness. A reunion makes sense for Fedde, who will join the organization where he had the best season of his career as he looks to re-establish himself as a big league starter. For the White Sox though, it’s far from a sure thing, and having to rely on his bounceback isn’t the ideal situation. If he can somehow regain his 2024 form, though, it’ll be key to the White Sox taking another step forward. 

The fifth rotation spot remains up for grabs, but young starters Sean Burke, Tanner McDougal, Noah Schultz, and Hagen Smith are expected to contribute heavily to the mix. They’re all young and inexperienced, but unlocking their upside will be the key to the rotation in 2026 and beyond. 

The White Sox rotation has a wide range of outcomes. If starters like Shane Smith, Davis Martin, and Sean Burke take a step back, the rotation could end up being a serious liability. Even the White Sox improved offense might struggle to keep up. But if the White Sox are able to get the best out of their group, they’ll certainly hit enough to hang in a lot of games. A better bullpen should turn more of those close games into wins. 

I think the answer to whether the White Sox can shock the world and compete this year, or how big of a step forward they can take, lies in the performance of their starting rotation. With questions surrounding it for both the present and the future, the rotation will be a key area to keep an eye on as 2026 gets underway.