Few young pitchers have it all figured out immediately after turning pro. There’s a reason Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes is, in many ways, a generational talent on the mound.
Skenes was the first overall selection in the 2023 MLB Draft, and within a year of being drafted he was starting the All-Star Game for the National League. Following his Rookie of the Year season, Skenes was just as good in 2025 and is going to run away with the NL Cy Young award.
That, however, is the exception to the rule. Skenes is not the norm for young pitchers, even those drafted out of college in the first round.
Chicago White Sox fans need to understand that when it comes to pitching prospect Hagen Smith, who has been the target for a lot of criticism in 2025.
White Sox fans judged Hagen Smith too early
Smith, the fifth overall selection in the 2024 MLB Draft, has taken some time to find himself as a professional baseball player. He has not been as dominant as White Sox fans would have hoped, and other 2024 draft prospects like Konnor Griffin and J.J. Wetherholt shining only magnifies all of Smith's shortcomings.
Earlier this season, the White Sox pulled Hagen Smith from game action and did some biomechanical work with him at the team's Spring Training complex in Arizona. That didn't seem to make a huge difference though, as he posted an ERA of 5.11 in his first 10 starts after returning.
That being said, Smith looked like a completely different pitcher during the final month of the season. He was lights out in his first playoff start with the Birmingham Barons. He then got the ball in the deciding game of the Championship Series and led the Barons to a win.
Looking at how Smith finished the 2025 season and his numbers for the season at large, it now seems like many White Sox fans judged him too harshly and too early.
Hagen Smith still looks like a future ace
Including his two postseason outings, Smith finished the 2025 season 4-3 with a 3.40 ERA in 22 starts at Double-A. He threw 84.2 innings on the year, and struck out 124 batters with an opposing batting average of .156 and opposing OPS of .586.
That's 13.3 K/9, which is a stat that very few pro pitchers are able to achieve at any level.
Smith has ridiculous stuff. He has everything it takes to be a future ace in Major League Baseball and make the White Sox glad they selected him with the fifth overall pick. Walks were an issue for him in 2025 (63 in 84.2 innings), but if he can ever find his control, Smith is going to completely overwhelm hitters.
If there's one reason for the White Sox to be concerned about Smith's future, it's the lack of innings under his belt at his age.
Smith was a starting pitcher for three years at Arkansas, but he never threw more than 91.2 innings in a season. That's the total he combined for between Arkansas and High-A Winston-Salem after the draft in 2024.
While he spent almost the entire season at Double-A in 2025 and has the talent to pitch in the big leagues in 2026, I find it unlikely that Smith has a significant impact on the White Sox next season. He's nowhere close to being able to handle a full MLB workload, and Chicago shouldn't call him up until he is.
It's still going to take a bit for Smith to build up his stamina. My biggest hope is that he can remain healthy while he does so.
It's almost impossible to find a young pitcher that doesn't have a thing or two they need to work on. Smith is no different, but all in all, I do think the White Sox fanbase and minor league talent evaluators judged him too quickly.
He plummeted down prospect rankings earlier this season and is currently the No. 87 prospect in baseball according to MLB Pipeline, but he showed down the stretch that he's still capable of being a future ace.
I'm more bullish on Hagen Smith now than I have ever been in the past.