13 games to go. A half-game lead in the AL Central. Everything on the line. Those three sentences sum up the current state of the Chicago White Sox, who head to Cleveland to open the final series of the year between the two teams on Monday with just a half game separating them. With the White Sox in a bit of a free fall since the start of September and the Guardians not exactly dominating, something has to give over the season’s final two weeks. It’s fair to assess the upcoming series as the biggest the White Sox have played since 2008, when they needed just one win over the Twins in the final series of the year to clinch the division. Those of you old enough to remember will know, they didn’t. Instead, they were forced to play a make-up game against the Tigers, then a one-game playoff against the Twins to decide the division. The White Sox will hope for a different outcome this time around.
The White Sox magic number to win the AL Central is 12. The next three days could cut that in half, but they could also virtually end any opportunity for the White Sox to win the central. The potential swing is massive. Let’s break down the situation.
White Sox-Guardians matchup could decide AL Central champion
The White Sox currently hold a 6-4 season series lead over the Guardians. They are 2-2 in Cleveland and 4-2 at home. Should the two teams finish the season with the same record, the tiebreaker is head-to-head record, so the White Sox just need to win one of the three games this week to earn it. There are four possible outcomes for the standings at the end of the series. If the White Sox sweep the Guardians, they’ll hold a 3.5 game lead in the division and own the tiebreaker, essentially making it an advantage of four games with ten to play. It would be very difficult for the Guardians to overcome that kind of deficit. If the White Sox take two out of three, they’ll hold a 1.5 game lead and own the tiebreaker. If they lose two of three, they’ll trail by half a game, but will still own the tiebreaker, and therefore, will control their own destiny. If Cleveland sweeps the White Sox, the Guardians will hold a 2.5 game advantage and will have taken the tiebreaker, essentially ending any chance the White Sox have in the division.
Possible outcomes for White Sox/Guardians series
— Noah Phalen (@Noahp245) September 14, 2026
Sox Sweep- 3.5 games up with tiebreaker
Sox win 2/3- 1.5 games up with tiebreaker
CLE wins 2/3- 0.5 games down with tiebreaker
CLE sweep- 2.5 games down without tiebreaker
Don’t get swept and you leave Cleveland with a…
On paper, the Guardians have the advantage. They’re playing at home. They’ve lined up their rotation to make sure their top two starters, Gavin Williams and Parker Messick, get to pitch in the series. They’ve been here before. They have a perennial MVP candidate in Jose Ramirez. But the one thing that’s been true about the White Sox all season is that they always find a way. They weren’t supposed to be here, but they’ve always believed in themselves and it’s gotten them this far.
The last couple weeks of White Sox baseball have been ugly, and several key players are going through difficulties, but it’s not over yet. The White Sox control their own destiny, and the next three games could decide it all. The team was never supposed to be here, but they are. Let’s hope they can take advantage of the opportunity in front of them and win the division for the first time since 2021.
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