According to Baseball Reference, the Pythagorean win-loss formula is “an estimate of a team's winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky. Under this calculation, the formula had the White Sox theoretically going 71-91 in 2025, when their actual record was 60-102. This discrepancy was, in fact, the largest in Major League Baseball in 2025. The truth is, the Chicago White Sox were the unluckiest team in the league, but a deeper look at the results suggests that Will Venable and his staff must deliver in 2026.
The White Sox scored 647 runs while giving up 742, which, when plugged into the formula, of course comes out to 71-91. However, the Sox went 15-36 in one-run games... again, the worst figure in all of Major League Baseball. This can ultimately be chalked up to inconsistent performance in the bullpen and poor decision-making by Venable and the staff. The club also struggled with timely hitting and the numbers with runners in scoring positon were not great
Bullpen meltdowns and a lack of clutch hitting defined the 2025 White Sox
Fans and critics alike can agree that one of the biggest headaches for the team was the bullpen, and the stats back that frustration. The White Sox finished dead last in saves, converting only 25 of 49 opportunities. Steven Wilson alone blew seven saves in nine opportunities, leading to plenty of questions. One standout moment was a three-run ninth-inning collapse on April 6th vs. the Tigers, when the Sox bullpen blew a 3-1 lead with one out in the ninth, ending on a two-run Spencer Torkelson double. The early-season woes continued throughout April, but by the time July rolled around, the team began to post more respectable numbers with a 12-13 record. July was a microcosm of the White Sox entire season: they exceeded theoretical expectations but couldn’t close out games.
Spencer Torkelson and the Tigers rally to walk it off! pic.twitter.com/KDBlIrMgOL
— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 6, 2025
One of the most important aspects of a winning team is hitting with runners in scoring position. In 2025, the team with the highest OPS+ hitting with RISP was, you guessed it... the Los Angeles Dodgers, who went on to win the World Series. The second-best team? The Toronto Blue Jays, who were two outs away from winning the whole thing. The White Sox ranked 28th with an OPS+ of 82 in these situations, the same as the Colorado Rockies, who finished as the worst team in baseball. Of course, a manager can only do so much to help improve hitting with RISP, but I’d like to see Venable switch up the lineup card more throughout this season than he did in 2025. Hopefully, Munetaka Murakami can help headline a new wave of clutch hitting, as he was elite in doing so in Japan.
We’ve spent this entire article looking at what Chicago did badly in 2025, so let’s end the article on a positive note. The White Sox had the sixth-best stolen base percentage in MLB in 2026, and with the recent departure of Luis Robert Jr., it will be interesting to see how they maintain their trend of efficient base stealing. Robert stole 33 of the Sox's 85 bags, doing so in 41 attempts, leading the team by far. While baserunning may decline this year, I predict the pitching and hitting will take a major step up. Hopefully, the staff will make the right decisions to put the team in the best position to win.