Why the White Sox could consider taking a flyer on a former Rockies all-star starter

Right-handed pitcher German Marquez isn’t making many top free-agent lists this offseason. The 30 year-old is coming off quite possibly the worst season of any pitcher in baseball in 2025. In 126.1 innings in 2025, Marquez finished 3-16 and was torched to a 6.70 ERA. His disastrous season certainly contributed to the Rockies 43-119 season, which came just two losses short of tying the White Sox miserable 2024 record. Marquez will now enter free agency looking for an opportunity to bounce back and re-establish the form that landed him an all-star nod just a few years ago. A rebuilding team like the White Sox, who have likely spent most of their allocated free-agent budget but are still in need of another starter, could be the ideal situation for Marquez. 

On the surface, Marquez’s numbers raise a huge red flag. He was near the bottom of the league in virtually every category in 2025. While his fastball velocity was solid, it very rarely fooled hitters. Opponents hit .358 against his four-seamer, and .350 against his sinker last season. While he didn’t throw it as much, opponents did even better against his slider, hitting .413 against the pitch in 2025. His most effective offering was his curveball, which held hitters to just a .208 average. Marquez was rocked in every sense of the word. He was in the bottom 7% in the league in Whiff rate, and opponents hit the ball hard nearly 50% of the time against him. At 36.9%, he didn’t generate nearly enough ground balls to be effective in a hitter-friendly environment like Coors Field. None of this is exactly confidence-inspiring when it comes to Marquez being a good target for the White Sox, but these numbers don’t tell the whole story. 

Two reasons Marquez's brutal numbers could be deceptive

First of all, Marquez played his home games at Coors Field in 2025. While his road numbers weren’t any better this past season, he’s historically been much worse in Denver, as many pitchers have. In 2022, Marquez finished the season with an uninspiring 4.95 ERA, however, in 15 starts on the road, that mark was 3.34. His 6.70 ERA at Coors Field elevated his overall numbers. While Rate Field is still known as a hitter-friendly environment, it’s reasonable to assume that leaving Colorado, where the ball flies and breaking pitches don’t spin as much, could help Marquez keep the ball in the ballpark. 

The main reason, in my opinion, for Marquez’s abysmal 2025 is his recent recovery from long-term injury. Marquez made just four starts in 2023 before Tommy John surgery wiped out the rest of his season and his first half of 2024. When he returned in 2024, his elbow flared up, landing him on the IL with a stress reaction and limiting him to just one start all season. Marquez spent the offseason rehabbing to make it back for 2025. Now, with a mostly healthy season under his belt, he can focus on improvement rather than just rehab. Most pitchers don’t return to their pre-Tommy John form until the second full season removed from the surgery, which for Marquez will be 2026. It’s more than reasonable to think that Marquez’s stuff will tick up a bit this year. 

While he may never be an all-star again at the big league level, Marquez will be just 31 years old for the 2026 season. He should have plenty left in the tank and a fully healthy offseason with a change of scenery could be just what he needs. An opportunity to work with White Sox pitching director Brian Bannister and pitching coach Zach Bove could help him recalibrate his mechanics and locate his pitches better. I think there are better, safer, options on the board for the White Sox to address their rotation, but the market for pitching has exploded, so the team could very well be priced out of even the top mid-tier options. If the Zack Littell, Lucas Giolito, and Chris Bassitt markets elevate to a point beyond the White Sox comfort zone, the team could pivot to a high-ceiling, low-floor option like Marquez. Worst case scenario, he doesn’t improve, and the team moves on early in the season and gives the spot to a prospect. 

It may not be the most exciting move in the world, but don’t be shocked if German Marquez heads to the South Side before Opening Day.