Will Jose Abreu outplay his ’15 projection?


Aug 24, 2014; Bronx, NY, USA; Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu (79) singles to right during the third inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

The projections for the the reigning AL Rookie of the Year Jose Abreu have been released by Steamer Projections, and I really don’t agree with them.

Nothing again the projection folks – I really like that provide this service – but after watching the way Abreu played in his first MLB season in ’14, I believe he’ll be able to have those type of numbers once again.

Sep 20, 2014; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu (79) and pitcher Chris Sale (49) hug before the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The projections are as of Dec. 16 with Abreu being projected to have a .283 batting average with a .355 on-base percentage and a slugging percentage of .530.

Add to that a projected WAR (wins above replacement) of 3.7, along with 34 home runs, 28 doubles and 99 RBIs, and sadly this has Abreu “regressing” next season, compared to his numbers from his rookie year.

For comparison’s sake, let’s compare the above projections to what Abreu accomplished on the field in ’14 (projection in parentheses):

– Batting Average: .317 (.283)

– On-Base Percentage: .383 (.355)

– Slugging Percentage: .581 (.530)

– WAR: 5.5 (3.7)

– Home Runs: 36 (34)

– Doubles: 35 (28)

– RBIs: 107 (99)

Do you agree with these projections? I’m not overly sure on the batting average or the home run numbers, but I can see the RBI numbers going down a bit just because of all the talent on the roster now.

Next: Jeff Samardzija, David Robertson to be introduced today

Continuing to look at the ’15 projections for Abreu, his OPS is being projected at .885, and the numbers are saying his strikeout numbers will increase to 128.

I’m agreeing with the strikeout numbers fine because maybe he’ll be swinging for the fence with Adam Eaton and Melky Cabrera on the bases, who will most likely be the No. 1 and 2 hitters in the batting order.

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Looking at trying to compare projections for Abreu’s rookie season, some (ESPN’s Jim Bowden) felt Abreu would bat over .300, saying he would have a .310 batting average with 30-plus home runs.

Looks like Bowden was correct on that statement, as others had Abreu batting under .300 in their preseason predictions.

What will ’15 hold for Abreu? Will his average drop 34 points? I highly doubt that, but it is baseball and stranger things have happened.

The good thing about the White Sox and Abreu this season is he won’t have to carry the team all by himself in ’15, as the front office of the team has surrounded him with a good group of talented players in the batting order.