Sabermetrics: Can MSV Expose Level of Marco Estrada’s 2017 Dropoff?
April 2016
4/10 vs Boston Red Sox: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 BB’s, 0 ER: 2.5 (W, Blue Jays win 3-0)
April 2016 MMT: 2.5
April 2016 MMA: 0.63
April 2016 QST: 2
April 2017
4/15 vs Baltimore Orioles: 7 IP, 4 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 2.5 (ND, Blue Jays win 2-1)
April 2017 MMT: 2.5
April 2017 MMA: 0.5
April 2017 QST: 4
Estrada had a very poor month of April in terms of MSV scoring, while still pitching well enough to earn it’s quality start status. His MO-Dot and QO-Dot were both poor, as neither was above the bottom two classifications. To clarify things, Estrada posted a 100 percent MMP score for 2016 and ’17 (MO-Dot), however he put up a 50 percent in MHP and HMP last season (QO-Dot). Fast forward to 2017, Estrada’s QST outweighed his Magnum Starts leading to a 75 percent MHP and 25 percent HMP.
To continue with this same thought process, Estrada’s MMT and MMA scores were virtually non-existent. He only registered for a Magnum Start once, and it was the lowest level possible a pitcher could grade out as. So in other words, April wasn’t a very good month for Estrada MSV wise unless you consider one Magnum Start and a few quality starts to be good.
May 2016
5/8 vs Los Angeles Dodgers: 7 IP, 3 H, 2 BB’s, 1 ER: 3.0 (ND, Blue Jays lose 4-2)
5/19 @Minnesota Twins: 8 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 5.5 (ND, Blue Jays win 3-2)
5/30 vs New York Yankees: 8 IP, 3 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 4.75 (W, Blue Jays win 4-2)
May 2016 MMT: 13.25
May 2016 MMA: 2.21
May 2016 QST: 5
May 2017
5/1 @ New York Yankees: 7 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 1 ER: 2.5 (W, Blue Jays win 7-1)
5/21 @ Baltimore Orioles: 7.2 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 2.5 (W, Blue Jays win 3-1)
May 2017 MMT: 5
May 2017 MMA: 0.83
May 2017 QST: 4
Moving on to May, Estrada production improved greatly especially when you take into consideration his 2016 season by itself. His MMT and MMA scores were solid, not to mention Estrada posted very good MO-Dot and QO-Dot totals that year. Just in QO-Dot alone, he recorded 40 percent of his Magnum Starts in the OMP department. On top of that, 66.7 percent of his MS would be regarded as MPM, which is in the MO-Dot classification.
However, the month of May wasn’t quite as kind to Estrada in 2017. One-hundred percent of his Magnum Starts were in it’s lowest category (MMP), topped by the fact that his MMT only totaled five for the whole month. QO-Dot wasn’t much kinder to Estrada, which was a 50/50 split between MHP an HMP.
June 2016
6/5 @ Boston Red Sox: 8 IP, 2 H, 3 BB’s, 2 ER: 5.5 (W, Blue Jays win 5-4)
June 2016 MMT: 5.5
June 2016 MMA: 1.1
June 2016 QST: 5
June 2017
DNQ for a Magnum Start
June 2017 QST: 1
July 2016
DNQ for a Magnum Start
July 2016 QST: 2
July 2017
7/31 @ Chicago White Sox: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 3.0 (ND, Blue Jays lose 7-6)
July 2017 MMT: 3.0
July 2017 MMA: 0.6
July 2017 QST: 1
These last two months were far from ideal for Estrada, unless you want look at June of 2016. Given that doesn’t show much, as the vast majority of his outings failed to qualify under the Magnum Start umbrella outside of its’ quality start statistic. To better illustrate this point, Estrada’s QO-Dot for June of ’16 was tilted heavily in the wrong direction considering 80 percent of the starts that registered for a QS were in the MHP classification.
On top of that, in July 2016 and June 2017 Estrada did not even qualify for a Magnum Start. To make matters even worse, he only had two quality starts in July ’16, however and a meager one QS in June ’17. Estrada’s MMT was far from suburb, when you take into account the fact it never exceeded 5.5 in any of these months. What’s worse, is that his worst MMA sunk below one, as it totaled 0.6 for July ’17, a poor result by any standard.
Estrada’s MO-Dot was virtually irrelevant for the months he did qualify, considering the fact each month he met its’ requirements it was merely once. In that case, 100 percent of his June ’16 starts registered as MPM not to mention Estrada logged the same percentage for July ’17. However the category was different, as his start that month was only classified as MMP.
August 2016
8/3 @ Houston Astros: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 ER: 3.0 (W, Blue Jays win 3-1)
8/29 @ Baltimore Orioles: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 ER: 3.0 (W, Blue Jays win 5-1)
August 2016 MMT: 6
August 2016 MMA: 1.2
August 2016 QST: 2
August 2017
8/10 vs New York Yankees: 7 IP, 5 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 2.5 (W, Blue Jays win 4-0)
August 2017 MMT: 2.5
August 2017 MMA: 0.42
August 2017 QST: 4
These two months were a bit better for Estrada depending on how you want to look at it. First of all, he recorded a Magnum Start both years not to mention racked up a handful of quality starts in ’17. Even though his MO-Dot may have been poor (100 percent in the MMP category) the volume of QS offset QO-Dot a bit. Last year, it was a 50/50 split between MHP and HMP, however this season it was 25/75 in terms of HMP and MHP.
While Estrada’s MMT and MMA were atrocious this season, 2016 was a different story. That is due to the fact he qualified twice, not to mention scored 3.0 each time instead of 2.5. In this scenario, Estrada’s MMA is above one which is not excellent by any means however could be deemed serviceable. His 2017 results were anything but.
September 2016
9/19 @ Seattle Mariners: 7 IP, 1 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 3.0 (W, Blue Jays win 3-2)
9/25 vs New York Yankees: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 BB’s, 1 ER: 2.5 (ND, Blue Jays win 4-3)
September 2016 MMT: 5.5
September 2016 MMA: 0.92
September 2016 QST: 2
September 2017
9/5 @ Boston Red Sox: 7 IP, 3 H, 3 BB’s, 0 ER: 2.5 (ND, Blue Jays lose 3-2)
9/16 @ Minnesota Twins: 8 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 ER: 5.5 (W, Blue Jays win 7-2)
9/22 vs New York Yankees: 7 IP, 3 H, 3 BB’s, 1 ER: 2.5 (W, Blue Jays win 8-1)
September 2017 MMT: 10.5
September 2017 MMA: 2.1
September 2017 QST: 3
One could argue that Estrada finishes up season exceptionally well, especially when you take into account quality and Magnum Start totals these final two months. Specifically focusing on September, Estrada posted multiple MS in 2016 and ’17 while failing to post another QS. That improved his QO-Dot immediately, as Estrada registered 100 percent of his 2016 Quality Starts in the HMP category.
On top of that, Estrada’s 2017 MO-Dot was decent but not spectacular. With 66.7 percent of his Magnum Starts falling under the MMP classification, meant Estrada was able to record outings past seven innings. Considering that, 33.3 percent of his MS were of the MPM variety.
Now, while his 2016 MMT and MMA totals were dreadful this season they were solid. With a total that exceeded 10 (10.5 to be exact), Estrada recorded a 2.1 MMA which is a very good average when you take into consideration the fact that he never went the distance once.
Overall, when you look at Estrada’s YQP for 2016 and ’17 it is solid to say the least. Last season, nearly two-thirds of his outings ended in a quality start (62.1 percent) while just over half of Estrada’s starts ended in a QS this year (51.5 percent). On the original MSV side of things, his 2016 YMT totaled 32.75 but 2017 was a different story. To illustrate that, Estrada posted a 23.5 YMT which is nowhere near a quality MLB starter.
Estrada also failed to post a solid average of any kind in 2017. As a matter of fact his YMA didn’t even break one, seen by his 0.71 score this season. Last years’ wasn’t a whole lot better, however Estrada did register a 1.13 on its’ scale. These outcomes are not something any pitcher wants if he is to be considered successful by MSV’s standards.
Before we wrap up, some of you may want to understand my method to this madness. You can find it in the first six letters of the alphabet (C, E, F). What do I mean by that? MSV is Fighting itself to Expose weaknesses, under a Controlled process. That may sound confusing, but let me explain.
When I say the fighting exposes the weakness, take a look at the litany of different aspects of MSV itself. One part of the stat may show a pitcher has a high percentage of Magnum Starts registering in the MPP category, however he only tossed one MS during that time span. So in other words, each is there to offset the other.
Now, let’s talk about controlling the process. Anytime a stat is developed, it is created with the idea of doing so under a regulated methodology. If that situation does not occur, the statistic cannot be successful. Even though I have brought in additional stats under the umbrella of MSV, they were done with the idea of constraint not to potentially liberate much needed analytical restrictions.
Given all of this may seen confusing at times, Estrada definitely took a step back this year in terms of MSV. However, he seemed to finish up the season well regardless of his lesser performance, but that may have had something to do with Estrada’s teammates, not just him. He lost two outings (in no decisions) where he tossed a Magnum Start in 2017, when he only dropped one the prior year in more chances.
Next: White Sox Outright Five Players to Triple-A
Did it affect his ability to relax when the Jays were scoring boatload of runs in 2016? More than likely, but keep in mind Toronto never put up in excess of five runs in games when Estrada qualified for a Magnum Start (scored eight in 2017). Quality of team/momentum, bullpen, not to mention defense also may have been factors, but how much of this can you blame on the team? Psychology is a large component with any player, however I am not privy to such information regarding Estrada this season. So in other words, who knows?
Until the next study, enjoy the division series.