Sabermetrics: Can MSV Expose Level of Marco Estrada’s 2017 Dropoff?

Before we wrap up, some of you may want to understand my method to this madness. You can find it in the first six letters of the alphabet (C, E, F). What do I mean by that? MSV is Fighting itself to Expose weaknesses, under a Controlled process. That may sound confusing, but let me explain.

When I say the fighting exposes the weakness, take a look at the litany of different aspects of MSV itself. One part of the stat may show a pitcher has a high percentage of Magnum Starts registering in the MPP category, however he only tossed one MS during that time span. So in other words, each is there to offset the other.

Now, let’s talk about controlling the process. Anytime a stat is developed, it is created with the idea of doing so under a regulated methodology. If that situation does not occur, the statistic cannot be successful. Even though I have brought in additional stats under the umbrella of MSV, they were done with the idea of constraint not to potentially liberate much needed analytical restrictions.

Given all of this may seen confusing at times, Estrada definitely took a step back this year in terms of MSV. However, he seemed to finish up the season well regardless of his lesser performance, but that may have had something to do with Estrada’s teammates, not just him. He lost two outings (in no decisions) where he tossed a Magnum Start in 2017, when he only dropped one the prior year in more chances.

Next: White Sox Outright Five Players to Triple-A

Did it affect his ability to relax when the Jays were scoring boatload of runs in 2016? More than likely, but keep in mind Toronto never put up in excess of five runs in games when Estrada qualified for a Magnum Start (scored eight in 2017). Quality of team/momentum, bullpen, not to mention defense also may have been factors, but how much of this can you blame on the team? Psychology is a large component with any player, however I am not privy to such information regarding Estrada this season. So in other words, who knows?

Until the next study, enjoy the division series.