If last Friday was Adrian Houser's final start in a Chicago White Sox uniform, he made it a memorable one. He also may have made a final good impression on a team interested in acquiring him before the July 31 trade deadline.
Houser allowed just three runs in 6.2 innings during the White Sox's 12-5 slaughter of the crosstown rival Cubs on Friday. The win snapped an eight-game losing streak the White Sox had in the Crosstown Classic.
The Athletic's Cubs beat reporter, Patrick Mooney, reports the Cubs have interest in acquiring the White Sox pitcher.
Mooney pointed out that Houser pitched well for Cubs manager Craig Counsell when they were together in Milwaukee.
Counsell also mentioned to Mooney that the organization is familiar with Houser since he was briefly with the club last year. Houser signed a minor-league deal with the Cubs after being released by the New York Mets, but did not pitch for the Cubs in the big leagues.
The Cubs still could use a back-of-the-rotation pitcher just as much as they need a frontline starting pitcher.
The North Siders were reportedly interested in pursuing Lucas Giolito, who would help the back end of the rotation. Plus, this is the Cubs we are talking about. You just do not know how much owner Tom Ricketts will allow the Cubs to add to their payroll.
Houser coming cheap is another reason he could be attractive to the Cubs, who have the farm system to make the White Sox a good offer.
Cubs farm system rankings
The Cubs' farm system is ranked 12th per Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter. MLB Pipeline ranked the Cubs' prospect pool 8th back in March while ESPN's Kiley McDaniel ranked the Cubs' prospects 10th at the start of the year.
The Cubs currently have five of the Top 100 prospects on MLB Pipeline's list. However, it is doubtful the White Sox could pry any of those players away for Houser alone.
The White Sox need to add more hitters to their prospect pool, and the Cubs have a suplus of young bats.
Here's a look at some trade packages that could make sense for both Chicago teams.
Trade 1 - White Sox land a Top 10 prospect from the Cubs
It is doubtful the White Sox get the full value of Houser's 11 starts he has made with the team. It has been an impressive run with a 2.10 ERA, 3.29 FIP, and a 1.7 fWAR.
Most teams are still argue that Houser's great season comes in a small sample size, therefore impacting his value. After all, this is still a pitcher who was throwing for the Rangers' Triple-A team to start the season.
That is why the traditional "WAR converted to dollars" method that teams use won't apply here. I think if you take his full-season value from 2019 and then 2021-2023 when he was with the Brewers, you get a more accurate representation $11.65 million. I think the real value could be even less since Houser was cut by two organizations last year. Teams fear regression.
If we are to assign Houser's trade value as somewhere between $7-11 million, the formula then says to match up a prospect's overall grade on the scout's 20-80 scale, along with the dollar value assigned to that grade.
Per FanGraphs, Jonathan Long has an overall 40 grade. MLB Pipeline has Long as the Cubs No. 6 prospect with a 50-grade. I'll put his grade at 45 to even things out, which has an assigned value of $6 million.
Long has power the White Sox need with 39 home runs in the minors over 235 games. He is blocked at all of his positions in the Cubs organization, but the White Sox have an opening at first base.
Valdez is the 38th-ranked prospect in the Cubs organization according to FanGraphs. He would be a developmental prospect the White Sox could take a gamble on.
Trade 2 - White Sox get two Top 30 prospects
Hernandez is considered the Cubs' 11th-best prospect per MLB Pipeline and No. 25 per FanGraphs. Pipeline has Hernandez with a 45 overall grade, while FanGraphs gives him a 40 grade.
If you're going off of the prospect evaluations from FanGraphs, this is an underpay from the Cubs. But it could be just right (or an overpay) if you go with MLB Pipeline's rankings, where Bateman is the Cubs' 22nd best prospect with a 40-grade.
Hernandez is a shortstop/second baseman who was signed in international free agency in 2021. The 21-year-old drew comparisons to Manny Machado when he was coming out. The Cubs gave him a huge signing bonus. He has a .726 OPS at High-A after struggling at that level last season following a promotion.
Bateman has little power but has a 70 grade when it comes to his fielding and running ability.
Trade 3 - A similar deal to the Tigers-Twins trade for Chris Paddack
The Twins just got the Tigers No. 14 prospect for Chris Paddack. Paddack's value was estimated to be $9.4 million per FanGraphs.
Christian Franklin is the Cubs' No. 14 prospect according to MLB Pipeline. FanGraphs ranks him 15th. He is sporting an OPS over. 800 in Triple-A this year, but is already 25 years old.
The Cubs outfield is crowded and it would make sense for the Cubs to trade an MLB ready player at a crowded position.
Eli Lovich is the Cubs' 30th-best prospect per MLB Pipeline. He was an 11th-round pick last year. He was an older prep prospect. He is a big, left-handed hitting prospect with a 55-run grade and a decent hit tool.