The San Diego Padres are trying to chase down the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title, and the Padres look to upgrade at the MLB trade deadline, the Chicago White Sox have some players available who could help them do that.
The Padres have needs in the outfield, behind the plate, and in the starting rotation, according to MLB.com's Padres beat writer AJ Cassavell.
The White Sox just so happen to have outfielders Luis Robert Jr., Mike Tauchman, Austin Slater, and Michael A. Taylor available.
Catcher Korey Lee is expendable to the organization with the emergence of Edgar Quero and Kyle Teel.
Adrian Houser has been brilliant in 10 starts for the White Sox, which the team should leverage for a prospect to help with the rebuild.
The Padres might not be the best trade partner
Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter ranks the Padres' farm system 26th in his latest rankings. MLB.com ranked the Padres' prospect pool 25th back in March. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel also ranked the Padres' minor-league system 26th.
The Padres have just two prospects in MLB Pipeline's Top 100. Anyway you slice it, it's not a particularly strong farm system to be trading for prospect from.
None of the players the White Sox have to offer would motivate the Padres to trade their two top prospects in Leo De Vries and Ethan Salas, anyways.
The White Sox must be in asset accumulation mode. While the Padres are not an ideal match, beggars can't be choosers. If White Sox scouts think the Padres have some prospects that can help the team down the road, then I think the Sox should try to do business with San Diego.
There are plenty of trades that could make sense for both sides. Here are three deals I could see the White Sox and Padres agreeing to.
Trade 1 - Bundle three assets to maximize the return package
I was not a fan of when Getz bundled pitchers Erick Fedde and Michael Kopech along with outfielder Tommy Pham in a three-team deal last year that netted the White Sox infielder Miguel Vargas and two other Los Angeles Dodgers prospects (Jeral Perez, Alexander Albertus).
Fedde and Kopech had club control, and Fedde had a team-friendly price of $7.5 million. Last year's trade deadline was kind to the reliever market.
Context also matters in trade negotiations. Fedde was a failed pitcher with the Washington Nationals who had to go to Korea to revive his career. Kopech was still inconsistent, and Pham was never going to be worth much on the trade market. Perhaps that gave teams some pause when trading with the White Sox.
I believe three things matter in projecting trade returns. One is the context of a player's career when it comes to the value numbers, such as WAR. The other is how that combines with ESPN's Kiley McDaniel's explanation on the White Sox Talk Podcast with how most teams use a formula that converts players into dollars. The final part is what past similar trades from history have yielded.
For example, Adrian Houser's current WAR puts him at a dollar value of $14.2 million per FanGraphs. Although, that conversion is mostly used for a predictor of what he could get on the free agent market. It is still a dollar conversion that could be used to calculate a potential trade value.
Tauchman is estimated to be worth $8.1 million and Lee is at $800,000.
Then we look at the context. Houser is having a great 10-game stretch, but he was so bad last year with the New York Mets that all he could get in the offseason was a minor league deal from Texas. Tauchman has a great OPS, but the home runs and power numbers are just not there for your typical big splash addition. Lee has been relegated to Triple-A Charlotte.
That is why the "$23.1 million total value" has to take a haircut. For example, if you add up the value of Houser's seven full big-league seasons, the average value is $8.9 million. Tauchman started to become a value player after returning from playing overseas in 2023. His average value over those three years is $9.9 million.
Then there are past trades, such as Michael Lorenzen netting the Texas Rangers just one player last year from the Kansas City Royals. SoxMachine.com's Jim Margalus feels Houser's market should be similar.
If the White Sox can bundle Houser and Tauchman along with Lee to get the Padres' No. 8 prospect in Kale Fountain, No. 10 prospect in Isaiah Lowe, and No. 24 prospect in Rosman Verdugo per MLB Pipeline, it would be a beneficial trade for all.
Houser helps upgrade the Padres' rotation. Tauchman can provide a professional left-handed outfield bat while providing solid defense in the corners. Lee is an upgrade over Martin Maldonado, just like he was last year with the White Sox.
Fountain has a 45 overall rating, which converts to $6 million in value according to FanGraphs. His power has an impressive 60-grade, which is perfect for the White Sox, who need more power bats.
The 2024 fifth-round pick only hit one home run in the Complex League this year before being assigned to Low-A. It is still early in his career as the 6-foot-5, right-handed hitter is 19. His potential as a future slugger is promising.
Lowe is an overall 45 prospect, which converts to $4 million per FanGraphs. He has an above-average 60 rating on his slider with a 55-grade on his fastball. He can run his fastball up to 97mph. He had a 3.33 ERA last year between Low-A and High-A. This year, he is struggling with his command at High-A with a 1.69 WHIP.
Still, Lowe has promising stuff worth asking for as part of a trade return.
Verdugo has a 40 rating on the scout scale, which converts to $4 million in value. His power rates below average with a 45 score. However, he has already hit 10 home runs this season with a slugging percentage over .400.
He is a 20-year-old lottery ticket prospect and it's worth seeing if his power can continue to develop.
Trade 2 - Dealing Luis Robert Jr. to the highest bidder
The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal speculated last month that Luis Robert Jr. could end up in San Diego.
Robert Jr. has been on a little bit of a tear recently. He had a great series against Pittsburgh that finally got his average over .200, and he's now hitting .364 with a 1.023 OPS in July.
However, it might be too little, too late. Robert still plays an elite centerfield, can steal bases, and he hits left-handed pitching well with a .299 average against lefties this season. He should fetch something much better than what the White Sox got for Eloy Jimenez last season, which was reliever Trey McGough, who ended up retiring this season.
The White Sox will likely have to throw in some cash to get a viable prospect. His current WAR converted to dollars puts him at $4.5 million. Getz can still lean on Robert Jr. helping contenders with his defense and his speed. His All-Star talent does still appear every once and a while. That is why the Sox should still be able to get the 45 overall grade, Romeo Sanabria.
The Mets, at one point, were rumored to be willing to give up their No. 15 prospect, Blade Tidwell, for Luis Robert Jr.
Getting the Padres' No. 16 prospect does not seem unreasonable. The White Sox could use a first baseman of the future. He is currently hitting over .280 with an OPS near .750.
Outfielder Daniel Montesino would be another prospect worth developing.
Trade 3 - The White Sox get something for Korey Lee
Veteran catcher Matt Thaiss fetched the White Sox outfielder Dru Baker, who is an older prospect with good speed.
Lee is younger than Thaiss and has years of club control. He will likely be nothing more than a lower-tie starting catcher or a career backup. Hs trade value will probably be on the same par as Thaiss.
The Padres system does not have a ton of bats similar to Baker. That is why the Sox could go with an older pitching prospect.
The White Sox could always use more arms, especially left-handed hurlers. Jackson Wolf is the 31st-ranked Padres' prospect according to Prospects1500.com. He is 26 years old and a former fourth-round pick. He pitched in one big league game back in 2023.
Wolf's stuff is not overpowering, but he does have 83 strikeouts to 26 walks this season in the minors. If he can hit his spots, he can be effective. When Wolf is not locating, he can get hit hard.