Do not expect the Chicago White Sox to make the playoffs this season. That is what happens when the offseason is spent not upgrading a roster that lost 101 games in 2023.
Fangraphs gives the Sox just a 0.7% chance of making the postseason. PECOTA gives the Sox even worse odds as in zero.
You will get those odds when you have a general manager and manager who thinks that replicating the Kansas City Royals will make this team competitive.
The Sox are projected to win 66 games per PECOTA. Fangraphs forecasts the Sox will win 67 games. That is not exactly quickly turning things around like owner Jerry Reinsdorf tried to sell when he promoted Chris Getz to general manager.
The season is not going to be a winning one. If you want to take a year or say three off from paying attention to this team, no one will blame you. If you are still one of those diehards you survived the White Flag trade of 1997, then you know this current rough patch is just part of the roller coaster ride of loving this team even if the relationship is toxic at times.
That means if you are sticking around or checking in from time to time, you should hope five things take place this in this inevitable lost season...
Eloy Jimenez and Yoan Moncada stay healthy.
They have both shown flashes of immense potential. They both also spent the bulk of their careers on IL.
Eloy has only played over 100 games twice during his five-year career with the most being 122. Moncada has missed 128 games over the past two seasons.
Jimenez appears poised to have a breakout season as he is crushing the ball in spring training.
Moncada is capable of winning a Gold Glove at third base. If his back has healed up, he can put up big numbers like he did in 2019. The Sox are going to need both of these players to be in the lineup in at least 140 games if they hope to shock the world.
Andrew Vaughn having a breakthrough season.
Last year the starting first base job went to Vaughn after former AL MVP Jose Abreu was allowed to depart in free agency. Vaughn has a ton of potential but he did not do the best job replacing a team superstar as he finished with a 0.3 fWAR.
Hopefully, this is the year he becomes an All-Star player.
Dylan Cease returns to his 2022 form.
Cease almost won the Cy Young that year. He struggled in 2023 with a 4.58 ERA. Cease did finish with a 3.72 FIP and a 3.7 fWAR.
Cease was the subject of constant trade speculation during the offseason, but he is staying on the Southside due to Getz having a high asking price. If Getz hopes to get something equal to the sun and moon, he needs Cease to be the dominant force in 2022.
The White Sox also need a dominant Cease because the four pitchers after him in the starting rotation are awful. Cease is the one pitcher the Sox have that gives the team a chance to win every five days.
Michael Soroka or Chris Flexen replicating their career years.
Soroka was dominant in 2019. He has pitched in just 10 games since due to injuries. Getz is taking a chance on Soroka staying healthy and returning to form this season when he was one of the five players acquired from the Atlanta Braves in the Aaron Bummer deal.
It is a low-risk, high-reward proposition to add Soroka to the starting rotation. The same can be said for Flexen.
Flexen was a free agent signing who has had two seasons where he is ERA has been under 4.00. He has also had five other seasons where his ERA is over 6.00.
If both can pitch as close to their career years as possible, that gives Getz some pitchers he can flip at the deadline for some future pieces. If they falter, well, expectations are super low this season so it will not matter.
Michael Kopech finally living up to his immense potential.
This is it for Michael Kopech. He has been given every opportunity to succeed as a starting pitcher and either injuries or inconsistency has gotten in the way.
He has to stay healthy and show he is worthy enough to be a starter or it is time for the White Sox to move on.