White Sox fans shouldn't expect last year's Rule 5 draft success to be replicated in 2026

The White Sox made a 19-win improvement from 2025 to 2026, which can partially be attributed to the arrival of top prospects like Kyle Teel and Colson Montgomery. But perhaps a bigger story was the success of the team in scouting and developing Rule 5 picks Shane Smith and Mike Vasil. The White Sox attempted to ride that momentum into this year’s Rule 5 draft, landing two players, but I don’t believe that success will be easily replicated in 2026. 

First of all, the White Sox roster is significantly more competitive than it was on Opening Day of 2025. Most fans remember the strong second half that fueled the optimism for this season, but the White Sox roster on Opening Day of 2025 left a lot to be desired. Players like Jacob Amaya, Michael A. Taylor, Travis Jankowski, Penn Murfee, and Mike Clevinger all began the year on the roster. With a large number of fringe MLB players and aging veterans, the White Sox had the roster flexibility to carry Shane Smith and Mike Vasil on the roster. Without too many top prospects in need of at bats, the White Sox were able to give Smith and Vasil a large runway to perform. 

This year, that’s not the case. The White Sox have a roster full of young players with upside that need reps, making it much more difficult to give a significant role to a Rule 5 pick. 

Paez and Alberto's lack of experience raises questions about roster fit

The White Sox selected RHP Jedixson Paez from the Red Sox and RHP Alexander Alberto from the Rays in December’s draft. Neither pitcher has appeared in a game above High-A and bring very different profiles to the table. For Paez, success comes from location and elite control. His walk rate was among the lowest in the minor leagues in 2024, though injuries cost him most of 2025. For Alberto, the stuff is what sticks out. Alberto regularly touches triple digits with his fastball and looks like a potential late inning reliever. He’s already 24 but has only reached High-A so a jump to tougher competition could make sense. 

Unlike Shane Smith and Mike Vasil, who both had experience at the Triple-A level before they were selected, Paez and Alberto don’t have the upper level experience, making it a curious decision to draft them in the first place with upper-level options available. 

As far as early spring performances go, Jedixson Paez has yet to appear in a Cactus League game. He threw a bullpen Wednesday afternoon, but his lack of game action makes it even more difficult to envision the White Sox keeping him on their Opening Day roster. Alexander Alberto has appeared twice, allowed two earned runs and five hits over two innings in relief. His arsenal hasn’t quite looked as dominant as advertised, so the White Sox may have a hard time justifying keeping him on the roster as well. 

Despite the White Sox recent success, this is closer to the norm. Rule 5 picks often aren’t significant contributors for the team that selects them, and many are returned to their original team early in the year. That may soon be the case for Paez and Alberto, who have just a few short weeks to prove why they belong on the White Sox roster. 

As fun as the emergence of Shane Smith and Mike Vasil was for White Sox fans in 2025, I’d encourage fans to temper their expectations and not expect the same level of success in 2026.