A recent 3-12 stretch has the Chicago White Sox sitting with a 45-83 record for the 2025 season. While that's an improvement over last year, there is little doubt now that it will be the second worst record in baseball and, once again, the worst record in the American League.
Thanks to the same CBA rules that damned the White Sox for the 2025 MLB Draft, baseball's worst team - the Colorado Rockies - will be ineligible to pick in the lottery next season. They'll be saddled with the 10th overall pick regardless of how they finish.
The Washington Nationals, while not as bad as the Rockies, are in the same boat. That leaves the White Sox, Pirates, and Twins as the three teams with the top odds to get No. 1 overall.
Since Pittsburgh is 8.5 games better than the White Sox with around 35 to play, the White Sox should be guaranteed the best odds - a 16.5 percent chance of getting the first overall pick while unable to pick lower than 7th.
That's a huge win for the rebuild, but White Sox fans need to prepare themselves for a world in which the South Siders don't get the No. 1 pick. History tells us that they probably won't end up with it.
History suggests the White Sox won't get the No. 1 overall pick
Only once since the draft lottery began in 2022 has a team with the top odds successfully landed the No. 1 overall pick. That was the Pirates during the 2023 MLB Draft. The Pirates were tied with the Nationals and A’s for the top odds (16.5 percent each) as the teams with the three worst records in 2022.
For what it's worth, the Pirates had the best record of those three. The third worst team in baseball picked first overall instead of the 55-107 Nationals.
In 2023, the A's were the worst team in baseball and finished with a 50-112 record. The lottery gave them the fourth overall pick while a Cleveland Guardians team that won 76 games got the No.1 pick off a 2.0 percent chance.
The White Sox were historically bad in 2024, clearly finishing with the worst record in baseball. They were ineligble to draft in the lottery and thus picked 20th. The Rockies and Marlins were left with even odds at No. 1 - 22.5 percent each. It didn't matter. The Nationals got the number one pick instead.
While the Sox might be a shoe-in to have the best lottery odds after this season, it would be a surprise if they actually ended up with the top draft choice. The franchise has not been known to "get lucky," and I'm not sure I see this being the moment that changes.
White Sox fans, buckle up now. Save yourself the heartbreak and lower your expectations for the 2026 MLB Draft. My hope is that the team can remain in the Top 3 and still lands a rebuild altering talent.