After a historically bad 41-121 season in 2024, the Chicago White Sox came into 2025 with their win total over/under set at a record-setting 53.5 wins.
The oddsmakers projected the Sox to experience yet another miserable season. Even if the South Siders saw a 12-game improvement under manager Will Venable in 2025, the White Sox would still come in under the Vegas total with a 53-109 record.
Thankfully, things appear to be moving in the right direction for the White Sox.
With a 5-1 road trip to open the second half of the season, Chicago is now 37-66. That still makes them the worst team in the American League by a wide margin, but at their current pace, the White Sox are going to finish with a much better record than what oddsmakers predicted.
The White Sox would have to go 4-55 the rest of the way to match their 2024 record. If the White Sox go 17-42 to close out the season, they'll hit the over on their preseason over/under with a 54-108 record. And finally, if the White Sox can manage to go 26-33 from here on out, they can avoid losing 100 games and finish at 63-99.
With how they've been playing recently, that doesn't seem out of the question anymore.
The White Sox might avoid losing 100 games in 2025
A 26-33 record is a winning percentage of .441. That's what it would take to avoid a third consecutive 100-loss season.
Since June 3, the White Sox have played right at that .441 pace with a record of 19-24 over their last 43 games.
Dating back to May 20, which was Adrian Houser's White Sox debut, the Sox are 23-32 in their last 55. If they were to repeat those results over the next 55 games, they'd be 60-98 with four regular season games remaining.
While the White Sox have been playing great baseball since the All-Star break, it's pretty obvious that their current level of play isn't sustainable. That being said, we can expect Chicago to play respectable ball the rest of the way. They've been doing it for 55 games now.
Young players like Edgar Quero, Kyle Teel, and Colson Montgomery are beginning to settle in against Major League pitching. That should only continue as they get more experience in the second half.
Colson Montgomery drives a 3-run shot to DEEP left center 💪 pic.twitter.com/UkaFWtMxqA
— MLB (@MLB) July 24, 2025
The trade deadline is an interesting variable. The White Sox will probably move a handful of their better players, including starting pitcher Adrian Houser and a few valuable bullpen arms.
But even after getting gutted by the deadline, 26-33 isn't an outrageous ask for the final 59 games of the season.
If the 2025 White Sox avoid reaching 100 losses and improve by over 22 games from last season, it will be a huge endorsement of manager Will Venable and the work that Chris Getz is doing in the front office.