White Sox Prospects: Who will be No. 1 by 2027, Billy Carlson or someone else?

Billy Carlson has yet to play in a minor league game, but it is just a matter of time before he is considered the top prospect in Chicago White Sox organization.

MLB Pipeline recently projected that to be the case by the start of the 2027 season.

"Multiple evaluators said Carlson was the best defensive shortstop they've ever seen in high school, which is why the White Sox signed him for $6,235,900 as the 10th overall pick in July," reads the list from MLB Pipeline. "He’ll need to make some adjustments at the plate but offers 20-homer potential, and he was also clocked up to 97 mph on the mound."

Carlson was taken by the White Sox with the 10th overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. The shortstop from Corona High School in California was considered the best defensive player in the draft. Some scouts thought he was the best prep defensive shortstop they had ever seen.

The consensus, however, is that Carlson needs to make some swing adjustments to reach his ceiling as a big leaguer.

If he can do that, there is the potential for Carlson to be one of the best all-around shortstops in baseball. At the very least, the scouting report believes adjustments are needed to avoid having too long of a swing. Shortening up could help Carlson become a consistent 20+ home run hitter.

The White Sox took a chance on Carlson's ceiling

I loved the Sox taking Carlson because the White Sox returned to a sound process of taking a player with a high ceiling.

The team drifted away from taking high-ceiling prep players in the first round over the past couple of drafts. After taking prep shortstop Colson Montgomery in 2021 and prep pitcher Noah Schultz in 2022, the team went with higher-floor college players like Jacob Gonzalez (2023) and pitcher Hagen Smith (2024).

While all four players have had their struggles in the minors, Gonzalez and Smith's struggles have been more pronounced. Smith's struggles look even worse after the team passed on taking prep prospect Konnor Griffin, who is now considered the top prospect in all of baseball.

If Carlson fulfills his immense potential, then that will mitigate the team's potential draft blunders of previous years. Taking a chance on potential is already paying off with Colson Montgomery's breakout rookie season in Chicago.

Montgomery is starting to become the face of this franchise, with 18 home runs in his first 53 career games.

Hopefully the White Sox see similar payoff from developing a toolsy high school player like Carlson.

I was also a fan of the White Sox drafting up the middle. It was lot of catchers, pitchers, shortstops, and centerfielders. It's hard to go wrong when you focus there due to defensive versatility and overall improved athletic profiles.

The path for Carlson to become the White Sox top prospect

The easiest way Billy Carlson can become the team's top prospect is if he produces in the minor leagues once he is assigned to the Arizona Complex League roster or Low-A Kannapolis.

Carlson is currently at the club's continuation camp in Arizona. This "bridge league" was developed due to the Complex League now starting before the draft. Teams can ease their young players into the pro game by having them play the equivalent of Spring Training backfield games.

Travel is limited, stats are not recorded, and games played in continuation camp are not considered official minor league games. Per James Fegan of SoxMachine.com, Carlson has been impressive with the work he has already put in so far.

Carlson must avoid getting off to a slow start to his professional career like Gonzalez did in 2023. If he fails to produce offensively, the shine will quickly dim on his potential to be a star.

Braden Montgomery, the current No. 1 prospect in the organization, will probably need to graduate from prospect status for Carlson to assume the title.

Montgomery had a .804 OPS across three levels of the minor leagues in his first professional season. He reached as high as Double-A this season, and could be due for an MLB debut at some point in 2026.

I don't see Carlson passing Montgomery in the prospect rankings, but if Montgomery gets called up and graduates in 2026, that's one more step closer to the top.

Noah Schultz will likely also have to graduate from prospect status, as he was previously the team's top prospect. He has had some struggles this year with his command and injuries. I am still hoping he turns things around and becomes a dominant left-handed starting pitcher in the big leagues.

Competition for top prospect status

Carlson could have competition for top prospect status once Montgomery and Schultz graduate, hopefully by the start of the 2027 season (or sooner).

Caleb Bonemer has been impressive this season at Low-A Kannapolis and High-A Winston-Salem. Last year's second-round pick is considered the team's No. 4 prospect by MLB Pipeline, one spot behind Carlson.

Bonemer is also a young shortstop who can play third base. He had a .281/.400/.458 slash line for the Cannon Ballers. That earned him a spot on the Top 100 list from MLB Pipeline (No. 84) and a promotion to High-A, where he has been on a tear.

This year's second-round pick, Jaden Fauske, also has a high ceiling that could put him in contention for top prospect status if he produces once he starts playing in official minor league games (he is also in continuation camp).

Then there's the elephant in the room. The White Sox could land the No. 1 overall pick if they win the MLB Draft Lottery. They currently have the best odds of getting the pick, but that's no guarantee. Should the White Sox pick first overall, that player could easily jump ahead of Carslon in the rankings.

What matters most is not where Carlson is ranked as a prospect, but his development. He must develop into the star player many scouts believe he can be. If that happens, then the White Sox made a great draft pick and will advance their rebuild even more.